Kerosene Shortage Threatens European Flights

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is sending ripples through the European aviation industry, with airlines bracing for potential flight cancellations and soaring ticket prices. A critical tanker, the ‘Rong Lin Wan’, is set to be the last vessel carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf to Europe for the foreseeable future, exposing a deep vulnerability in the continent’s supply chain.

Around 1,200 flights between Europe and the Middle East are being cancelled daily.
Airlines are diverting flights, adding 206,000 kilometers of extra distance and burning 602 tons more fuel each day.
Lufthansa is considering grounding up to 40 aircraft due to the rising cost of kerosene.

What Happened & Why It Matters

The crisis stems from fears that the conflict in the Middle East will disrupt the flow of kerosene, a crucial fuel for air travel. Europe relies heavily on the Gulf region for its jet fuel supply – approximately 40% before the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, facing potential blockades, airlines are scrambling to secure alternative sources. The situation is compounded by refinery closures, environmental regulations favoring expensive biofuels, and sanctions against Russia, all contributing to a tightening market. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr announced the airline is examining the temporary grounding of around 20 aircraft, potentially rising to 40 if conditions worsen. “We want to be prepared early,” Spohr stated, according to the Handelsblatt. The increased kerosene prices are expected to add approximately €1.5 billion in additional costs for Lufthansa.

Market Context / Public Reaction

The price of kerosene has more than doubled since the end of 2023, reaching nearly $1,800 per tonne. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has also warned of significantly higher ticket prices, predicting potential fuel supply shortages in Europe. “Perhaps we will gain three to five weeks by drawing on some of the strategic reserves and postponing the cleaning work in the refineries that normally takes place in spring. But that won’t be enough,” a source at a major European airline told the Corriere newspaper. Passengers are already bracing for increased fares, and the prospect of widespread flight disruptions looms large, particularly during the peak summer travel season. Airports heavily reliant on Middle Eastern routes, such as Istanbul Airport and London Heathrow, are experiencing the most significant declines in flight volume.

Historical Parallel or Precedent

The current situation echoes the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which exposed Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. However, the kerosene shortage presents a unique challenge, as alternative fuel sources are limited and the logistical complexities of rerouting flights and securing new supply chains are substantial. Unlike the oil and gas crisis, where Europe could diversify its suppliers, the jet fuel market is more concentrated, with the Middle East playing a dominant role. This makes finding quick and viable alternatives significantly more difficult.

What Happens Next

The immediate future hinges on the stability of the Strait of Hormuz. If the waterway remains open, the situation could stabilize, but prices are likely to remain elevated. However, a prolonged closure would force airlines to implement drastic measures, including widespread flight cancellations and capacity reductions. The reliance on alternative suppliers like the US and West Africa is proving insufficient to fill the gap, and competition for these resources is intensifying. Airlines are also exploring the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), but these are currently expensive and in limited supply. The crisis is likely to accelerate the push for SAF development and investment, but a widespread transition is years away. The European Commission may be forced to intervene with emergency measures, such as releasing strategic fuel reserves or providing financial support to airlines. Ultimately, the long-term solution requires a fundamental restructuring of Europe’s jet fuel supply chain, reducing its dependence on a single region and investing in more diversified and sustainable sources. The potential for a summer of travel chaos is very real, and the economic consequences could be significant, impacting tourism, trade, and overall economic growth.

What is 'kerosinmangel'?

“Kerosinmangel” is German for “kerosene shortage.” It refers to the current situation where there is a limited supply of kerosene, the fuel used in jet engines, particularly in Europe due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Why is Europe so vulnerable to kerosene supply disruptions?

Europe is heavily reliant on the Middle East for its jet fuel supply, with around 40% previously sourced from the Gulf region. The potential for disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery closures and environmental regulations, has created a precarious situation.

Will ticket prices increase?

Yes, airlines are already warning of significant ticket price increases due to the higher cost of kerosene. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary predicts prices could rise by 10-25% in May and June. Lufthansa is also planning to increase fares to offset the additional costs.

The ‘Rong Lin Wan’ tanker, a symbol of global interconnectedness, now represents a looming threat to summer travel plans. The question isn’t just whether flights will be cancelled, but whether this crisis will force a fundamental rethinking of Europe’s energy security and its reliance on a volatile region for a vital resource.

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