Why XRP’s 77% Volume Surge May Signal a Hidden Bull Run – Beware the Tariff Drag

• You can’t ignore the 77% jump in XRP’s 24‑hour volume – it’s a market‑level alarm.
• Macro‑driven risk aversion is pulling crypto down, but on‑chain activity tells a different story.
• Historical data shows that the last time XRP posted similar realized losses, it rallied over 100% within months.
• Understanding realized losses and on‑chain usage can sharpen your entry timing.
• Both bull and bear cases hinge on tariff policy clarity and broader risk sentiment.

You’re missing the silent signal that could flip XRP’s fate.

Why XRP’s Volume Spike Defies a $100B Crypto Sell‑Off

In the past 24 hours, the entire crypto market has erased roughly $100 billion in market cap while $485 million of liquidations have been recorded. Yet XRP’s trading volume surged 77% to $2.43 billion. That divergence is not random; it reflects a repositioning by traders who see the price dip as a buying opportunity, even as the broader market remains under pressure from renewed trade‑war tensions.

Volume is a leading indicator. When price moves on thin volume, the move is often temporary. Conversely, a sharp rise in volume amid a price decline signals that market participants are actively changing their stance—either dumping at lower prices or accumulating for a future bounce. For XRP, the volume surge coincides with its largest weekly on‑chain realized loss since 2022, suggesting that a sizable cohort of holders is cutting losses while another cohort is stepping in.

How Trade‑War Tariffs Are Steering Crypto Sentiment

Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have been marching in lockstep with macro headlines this week. Uncertainty surrounding tariff policy between major economies has reignited fear‑of‑loss among risk‑averse investors. When governments signal potential trade barriers, equity markets tumble, and the spill‑over effect pushes capital into safe‑haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds.

Cryptocurrencies, despite their “digital gold” narrative, are still perceived as risk‑on instruments. As long as tariff policy remains ambiguous, crypto will likely continue to mirror equity market sentiment. This macro‑driven correlation means that any upside for XRP will first require a clearer tariff outlook, or a decoupling of crypto from traditional risk sentiment.

Historical Parallel: 2022 Realized Loss Spike and the 114% Rally

Back in 2022, Santiment data captured a weekly realized loss of $1.93 billion for XRP—the same magnitude we see today. At that time, investors who held through the loss saw XRP climb 114% over the following eight months. Realized loss spikes often coincide with panic selling, yet they also mark the bottom of a market cycle when capitulation is at its peak.

Why does this matter? If history repeats, the current $1.93 billion loss could be the precursor to a multi‑month rally, especially if the macro backdrop improves. However, a repeat is not guaranteed; the catalyst this time is intertwined with external tariff risk, not purely internal crypto dynamics.

Competitive Landscape: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the Ripple Effect

While XRP wrestles with volume and realized losses, its peers are experiencing their own pressures. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.8% in the last 24 hours, and Ethereum (ETH) slipped 3.1%, both reflecting the same macro‑driven risk aversion. Yet BTC’s on‑chain activity remains relatively stable, whereas XRP’s ledger transactions have jumped 40% to near 2.5 million per day, indicating stronger network utility despite price weakness.

This divergence suggests that XRP’s core use‑case—fast, low‑cost cross‑border payments—is gaining traction even as price lags. For investors, the contrast between price performance and network usage can be a decisive factor when allocating capital among crypto assets.

Technical Corner: Realized Losses, On‑Chain Metrics, and Moving Averages

Realized losses represent the difference between the price at which an investor purchased a coin and the price at which they sell it, summed across all transactions in a given period. A spike indicates mass selling at a loss, often driven by fear.

On‑chain volume measures the total value of transactions recorded on the blockchain, offering insight into actual usage versus speculative trading.

Moving averages—especially the 50‑day and 200‑day—act as dynamic support/resistance levels. XRP is currently trading below both, a bearish technical signal. However, when volume spikes above these averages, it can signal a potential breakout.

Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios for XRP

Bull Case: If tariff negotiations resolve favorably, risk sentiment improves, and the macro drag eases, XRP’s heightened on‑chain activity could translate into price appreciation. Historical precedent suggests a possible 80‑120% rally over the next 6‑12 months, especially if the $100B crypto market sell‑off stabilizes.

Bear Case: Persistent tariff uncertainty keeps risk assets depressed. Continued liquidations and weak conviction could push XRP further below key moving averages, potentially eroding its market cap by another 30% within the next quarter.

Strategically, investors might consider a tiered entry: allocate a small position now to capture the volume‑driven dip, add to the position if on‑chain usage continues to rise, and hedge with stablecoins or short positions should macro risk remain elevated.