Why XRP's $1.15 Dip Could Ignite a $15 Surge: What Savvy Traders Must Know
Key Takeaways
- XRP retested a long‑term resistance trendline at $1.15, a historic catalyst for massive upside.
- Measured move methodology projects a potential rally to $15, a ten‑fold increase from current levels.
- Five consecutive red monthly candles underline a multi‑month bearish phase, but pattern history suggests a breakout.
- Sector‑wide ripple effects could benefit Ripple‑related services and weaken competing stablecoins.
- Bull case hinges on trendline break; bear case hinges on failure to sustain above $1.30.
You missed the warning sign on XRP’s $1.15 dip, and now the upside could be explosive.
Why XRP's Monthly Red Streak Signals a Potential Reversal
On the monthly candlestick chart, XRP has logged five straight red bars, each closing lower than its open. The most recent close in January slumped 10.6% below the opening price, extending the downtrend to a cumulative 13% loss for February so far. While a series of red candles usually signals entrenched weakness, seasoned chartists treat prolonged red streaks as a prelude to a pent‑up buying pressure that often erupts once a decisive support‑or‑trendline breach occurs. In XRP’s case, the breach happened at $1.15, a level that historically acted as a “spring”—a technical term for a sharp, low‑time‑frame dip that quickly rebounds, loading the next leg of the move.
How the $1.15 Trendline Retest Mirrors the 2017 Pattern
Technical analyst Javon Marks highlighted that the February 5 low touched a descending trendline first drawn after XRP’s 2018 peak of $3.40. That line held firm for years, guiding the price down to a valley in 2025 before finally yielding to a breakout that propelled XRP to $3.65 in July 2025. The geometry of the current retest is nearly identical: a low‑time‑frame wick precisely hits the trendline, followed by an immediate bounce. When the 2017 pattern resolved, the price surged beyond $5, then continued an upward trajectory for months. By measuring the height of the compression zone—essentially the vertical distance between the upper and lower converging trendlines—Marks calculates a target of roughly $15, a ten‑times multiple of today’s $1.43 level.
Sector Implications: Ripple’s Move vs. Competing Crypto Assets
If XRP breaches the $5‑$7 corridor on its way to $15, the ripple effect will touch the broader crypto ecosystem. Ripple’s core business—cross‑border settlement solutions for banks—relies on XRP’s liquidity. A sustained price rally would likely increase demand from institutional partners, bolstering Ripple’s revenue outlook. Conversely, competing stablecoin projects such as USDC and Tether could see a modest outflow as treasury managers diversify into higher‑yielding assets. Moreover, the bullish narrative may trigger a re‑rating of crypto‑focused funds that currently underweight XRP, nudging portfolio allocations toward the token.
Historical Context: Lessons from 2018‑2025 XRP Cycles
Examining XRP’s price history reveals a repeating cycle: a multi‑year consolidation under a descending channel, a decisive breakout, and a rapid ascent to a new all‑time high. The 2018‑2020 bear market saw XRP slide from $3.40 to sub‑$0.30, only to rally after a trendline break in late 2020. The 2022‑2025 cycle mirrored that pattern, with a decisive breakout in 2025 that sent the coin to $3.65. Each breakout was preceded by a sharp, low‑time‑frame dip that tested a long‑term resistance line, exactly what we observe today at $1.15. History suggests that once the trendline holds and the price rebounds, momentum carries the token far beyond the immediate target.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: The $1.15 bounce holds, and XRP closes above $1.30 on the daily chart, confirming the breakout. The measured move unfolds, pushing the price to $5 within 4‑6 weeks, then to $10 by quarter‑end, and finally flirting with $15 as institutional demand peaks. Positioning: allocate 5‑10% of a crypto‑heavy portfolio to XRP, using a staggered entry at $1.40, $1.80, and $2.20 to average down. Protect upside with a trailing stop at 25% above entry.
Bear Case: The bounce proves shallow, and the price falls back below $1.15, re‑establishing the descending trendline. Momentum sellers drive XRP toward $0.90, eroding short‑term confidence. Positioning: keep exposure under 2% or use a put spread to hedge. A stop‑loss at $1.20 for any long position can limit downside.
Regardless of the outcome, the pattern’s recurrence makes XRP a high‑conviction candidate for traders who thrive on technical breakouts. Monitoring volume spikes, on‑chain activity, and any regulatory headlines will be critical to confirming which side of the trade the market chooses.