Why monday.com's Next Earnings Could Flip Your Portfolio

• Revenue is projected to grow 22.9% YoY, a slowdown from last year's 32.3% surge.
• Adjusted EPS estimate stands at $0.92, versus the prior quarter’s surprise beat.
• Enterprise customers now total 3,993 – a 7% increase in high‑value contracts.
• Current price $97.98 vs. average analyst target $203.40 – a 108% upside on paper.
• Sector peers Atlassian and Microsoft posted modest beats but saw share pull‑backs, hinting at market nervousness.

You missed the last earnings surprise, and that cost you big gains.

monday.com Revenue Outlook vs. Market Expectations

Analysts are forecasting $329.5 million in revenue for the upcoming quarter, a 22.9% year‑over‑year increase. While that growth rate is still robust, it marks a deceleration from the 32.3% expansion recorded in the same quarter a year ago. The consensus adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is $0.92, up from the prior period’s $0.78, reflecting tighter cost discipline.

The guidance gap matters because investors price in growth momentum. A slower top‑line could trigger a re‑rating if the market perceives the slowdown as a structural shift rather than a short‑term hiccup.

Sector Momentum: Productivity SaaS in a Turbulent Market

Productivity‑software stocks have been under pressure, sliding an average 18.7% over the last month. Macro headwinds—rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and lingering post‑pandemic budget tightening—are squeezing enterprise spend. Yet the long‑term tailwinds remain: digital transformation, remote‑work entrenchment, and the shift toward low‑code/no‑code platforms.

Within this environment, monday.com’s 26.2% YoY revenue jump to $316.9 million last quarter demonstrates that the platform still captures a sizable share of new‑workflow automation budgets.

Competitive Landscape: How Atlassian and Microsoft Set the Bar

Atlassian posted a 23.3% YoY revenue growth and beat forecasts by 2.8%, while Microsoft’s productivity suite grew 16.7% and topped estimates by 1.2%. Both stocks fell on the day of results—Atlassian down 4.8% and Microsoft down 10%—highlighting that beat‑and‑run‑away reactions are no longer the norm.

For monday.com, the lesson is clear: beating estimates alone isn’t enough; investors now demand forward‑looking guidance that signals sustainable margins and market share gains.

Historical Performance: Two Years of Revenue Beats

Over the past 24 months, monday.com has outperformed analyst revenue forecasts by an average of 2.2% each quarter. This consistency builds credibility and creates a “beat‑bias” in the stock’s valuation. However, the company’s earnings surprises have been less pronounced, suggesting that while top‑line growth is strong, profitability remains a work in progress.

Technical Definitions: EBITDA, Revenue Guidance, Price Target

EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is a proxy for operating cash flow, stripping out non‑operational items. monday.com’s EBITDA beat signals that operating efficiency is improving.

Revenue Guidance is management’s forward‑looking estimate of sales. Analysts compare this to consensus forecasts to gauge the company’s confidence.

Price Target reflects analysts’ valuation of a stock based on projected cash flows, multiples, and growth assumptions. The current average target of $203.40 implies a >100% upside from today’s price.

Investor Playbook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bull Case: If monday.com sustains >25% YoY revenue growth and narrows its EBITDA gap, the stock could re‑price toward the $200‑$220 range. The addition of 291 new enterprise contracts suggests deepening market penetration, and a successful upsell to existing customers could lift gross margins above 80%.

Bear Case: A further slowdown in revenue growth below 20% coupled with muted guidance on profitability could trigger a sharp correction. The broader SaaS sector’s 18% slide hints at investor risk aversion; a miss on both revenue and EPS may push the stock below $70.

Bottom line: monday.com sits at a crossroads where a strong earnings beat could catapult the share into a multi‑year uptrend, while a lukewarm report may deepen the discount. Position size, risk tolerance, and timeline will dictate whether you add to a position, hold, or exit.