Why Bitcoin's NUPL Turning Red Signals the Next Bull Run – What to Watch

• Long‑Term Holder NUPL is edging toward negative – a classic pre‑bull‑run signal.
• Historical halving cycles suggest a price surge could start mid‑2026.
• Institutional forecasts now range $150k‑$250k, widening upside potential.
• Technical and fundamental metrics line up, but liquidity risk remains.

You’ve ignored Bitcoin’s NUPL warning sign—now it’s time to act.

Related Reads: Why the 14‑Year‑Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Could Signal the Next Bull Run

Why Bitcoin's NUPL Turning Red Signals a Bull Run

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the aggregate profit or loss of long‑term Bitcoin holders. A value above zero means holders are, on paper, in profit; below zero indicates they’re sitting in unrealized losses. Historically, the strongest upward price momentum begins once NUPL dips into the red zone, signaling that even the most patient investors are finally forced to sell, creating a supply vacuum.

CryptoQuant’s latest data shows Bitcoin’s NUPL at 0.36 – still positive, but trending downward. When the metric crosses zero, we typically see a sharp contraction in selling pressure and a rapid price acceleration. The last time NUPL went negative was during the 2020‑2021 rally that propelled Bitcoin from $8,500 to $69,000, a 705% gain.

How the 2024 Halving Sets Up a 2026 Price Surge

The Bitcoin protocol reduces block rewards roughly every four years – a “halving”. The most recent halving on April 10, 2024 cut the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, slashing new supply by 50%. Supply‑side scarcity combined with rising demand historically fuels multi‑year bull markets.

Looking at the previous two halvings:

• 2012 halving → 2013 bull run (price from $12 to $1,150)
• 2016 halving → 2017 bull run (price from $650 to $19,800)
• 2020 halving → 2021 bull run (price from $8,572 to $69,000)

Each cycle took roughly 12‑18 months post‑halving to hit its peak. Extrapolating, the next apex could materialize between early and mid‑2026, when reduced supply meets growing institutional demand, especially from Bitcoin ETFs that are now proliferating across global markets.

What Competitors and Institutional Players Are Doing

Traditional finance giants are moving deeper into crypto. Standard Chartered and Bernstein have lifted their 2026 BTC price target to $150,000, citing ETF inflows and clearer regulatory frameworks. Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse, speaking at Dubai’s Blockchain Week, pushed the ceiling to $180,000, while Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish $250,000 projection fuels retail enthusiasm.

On the exchange side, BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes forecasts a $200,000+ level by March 2026, assuming global liquidity stays accommodative. These forecasts are not isolated; they reflect a broader shift where custodial services, futures platforms, and sovereign wealth funds are allocating capital to Bitcoin as an inflation‑hedge and a non‑correlated asset.

Historical NUPL Patterns and Their Predictive Power

Analyzing the past three cycles:

• 2013 Cycle: NUPL turned negative in mid‑2014, price bottomed at $200, then surged to $1,150 in 2015.
• 2017 Cycle: NUPL crossed zero in early 2020, coinciding with the post‑halving rally that peaked in late 2021.
• 2021 Cycle: NUPL remained positive throughout the peak, and the subsequent drop to sub‑$30,000 in 2022 was preceded by a prolonged positive NUPL, indicating over‑extension.

The pattern is clear: a negative NUPL is a precursor to a supply‑driven price breakout, while a prolonged positive NUPL often precedes a correction. The current trajectory suggests we are nearing that inflection point.

Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios

Bull Case

• NUPL breaches zero by Q4 2025, triggering panic‑selling exhaustion.
• ETF inflows double YoY, tightening demand.
• Regulatory clarity in major economies removes compliance uncertainty.
• Result: Bitcoin climbs to $150k‑$200k range by mid‑2026.

Bear Case

• NUPL stalls above zero, indicating persistent holder profit and weak selling pressure.
• Global liquidity tightens, reducing speculative capital.
• Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi and custodial services slow institutional entry.
• Result: Bitcoin remains below $70k, with potential dip to $40k.

Strategic takeaways: consider allocating a modest portion of your crypto exposure to Bitcoin now, using a staggered entry approach (e.g., dollar‑cost averaging) to capture the upside while mitigating downside risk. Keep a close eye on the NUPL metric; a sustained negative reading should be a cue to increase exposure, whereas a rebound above zero may warrant a defensive shift to stablecoins or cash.