You missed the Nifty’s bounce—now is the time to act.
- Nifty 50 closed above 25,000 and the 200‑day DEMA, hinting at renewed buying interest.
- Banking and metals led the rally, while the broader market shrugged off recent volatility.
- Key technical zones: 25,000‑25,050 demand area; 25,300‑25,350 resistance.
- Five breakout stocks—BSE, CUB, Acutaas Chemicals, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel—offer intraday upside.
- Bearish pressure remains at the 25,300 level; a break below 25,000 could reignite corrections.
On the expiry‑driven trading day, the Indian market displayed classic swing‑trade drama: sharp intraday oscillations, a modest 0.5% gain for the Nifty 50, and a sectoral spread that favored banks, metals, and financials. While the headlines spoke of volatility, the underlying price action painted a clearer story—one that savvy investors can translate into actionable positions.
Why Nifty’s 0.5% Gain Beats the Recent Downtrend
The Nifty 50’s rise to 25,175.40 may look modest, but it broke a three‑week pattern of sub‑25,000 trading. Closing above the 200‑day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly 25,100 signals that the long‑term trendline is being respected. In technical jargon, the 200‑day EMA (or 200‑day DEMA, a double‑smoothed version) acts as a “magnet” for institutional flow; when price stays above it, the market is considered to be in a bullish regime.
Sectorally, metals surged on expectations of higher global demand, while banking stocks—led by Axis Bank’s earnings beat—provided the backbone for the rally. Financials followed suit, reinforcing the notion that risk appetite is improving after the overhang from the pending India‑EU free‑trade agreement began to fade.
Banking Sector Momentum: Axis Bank, Bank Nifty, and Peer Comparison
Axis Bank’s post‑earnings lift helped the broader index reclaim ground. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty hovered around 58,850, comfortably above its 20‑day and 50‑day EMAs, a classic sign of short‑term strength. Compare this with peers:
- Tata Finance—still battling a 3% pullback after its Q3 miss, but holding above its 50‑EMA.
- HDFC Bank—trading within a tight range near 16,200, awaiting macro data to break out.
- ICICI Bank—showing a modest upside after a recent dividend announcement.
The collective resilience of the banking cohort suggests that credit‑linked equities may continue to outpace the broader market, especially if the 58,800‑59,000 support holds firm. A clean break above the 59,500‑59,600 resistance band could catalyze a fresh rally toward the 60,200‑60,500 zone.
Historical Patterns: Expiry‑Day Volatility and What It Means for 2026
Indian markets have a well‑documented habit of spiking on monthly expiry days. In the past three years, the Nifty 50 has averaged a 0.8% intraday swing on expiry, with 60% of those days ending in positive close. The 2024 expiry, for example, saw a 0.7% gain after a sharp dip to 24,800—a pattern that mirrors today’s recovery from intra‑week lows.
Historically, a post‑expiry bounce that stays above the 200‑day EMA often precedes a two‑to‑four‑week uptrend, especially when macro cues (such as trade talks or easing geopolitics) are favorable. Investors who positioned early in the 2024 post‑expiry rally captured an average of 6% excess return versus the index.
Technical Blueprint: Key Levels, EMAs, and the 200‑Day DEMA Support
Key price zones to watch:
- Support: 25,000‑25,050 – the primary demand bucket. A breach here could trigger algorithmic stop‑losses and reignite a corrective wave.
- Resistance: 25,300‑25,350 – the next supply cluster where sellers historically emerge.
- 200‑Day DEMA: ~25,100 – a long‑term health indicator. Staying above this line adds credibility to the bullish narrative.
The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) gives more weight to recent prices, making it a preferred tool for short‑term traders. The DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) smooths out noise further, offering a clearer picture of trend direction. When price hugs both EMAs from above, momentum is considered “aligned,” a condition seen in the five breakout stocks highlighted later.
Top 5 Breakout Stocks: Intraday Playbook with Entry, Target, Stop
These picks were flagged by Choice Broking’s executive director for their strong EMA alignment and bullish price patterns.
- BSE – Buy at ₹2,761, Target ₹2,975, Stop ₹2,650. Holding above 20‑ and 50‑day EMAs; momentum confirmed by a rising RSI (Relative Strength Index) near 65.
- CUB – Buy at ₹284, Target ₹306, Stop ₹274. Consistent higher highs/lows; price rests on the 100‑day EMA, offering medium‑term support.
- Acutaas Chemicals – Buy at ₹1,725, Target ₹1,850, Stop ₹1,650. Pullback to the 50‑/100‑EMA confluence suggests a healthy corrective move, not a trend reversal.
- Tech Mahindra – Buy at ₹1,748, Target ₹1,880, Stop ₹1,690. Fresh 52‑week high, all key EMAs aligned upward, RSI at 69.8 indicating strong bullish pressure.
- JSW Steel – Buy at ₹1,222, Target ₹1,315, Stop ₹1,175. Breakout from a rounding‑bottom pattern, EMAs in bullish order, RSI climbing above 60.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Scenarios
Bull Case
- Price holds above the 25,000 demand zone and clears the 25,300‑25,350 resistance, unlocking a potential run to 25,600‑25,800.
- Bank Nifty sustains above 59,500, encouraging financials to lead the next wave.
- Positive global cues—especially progress on the India‑EU FTA—keep risk appetite high, supporting metals and export‑linked stocks.
- Technical indicators (EMA alignment, RSI > 60) remain bullish across the breakout stocks, delivering intraday gains of 3‑5% on average.
Bear Case
- A break below 25,000 triggers algorithmic selling, potentially dragging the Nifty toward the 24,800‑24,600 range.
- Bank Nifty falters under 58,800, exposing banks to margin pressure and widening credit spreads.
- Any setback in trade negotiations or renewed geopolitical tension could reverse the risk‑on sentiment.
- If EMAs diverge (price slipping under the 20‑EMA), the five breakout stocks could see rapid retracements, erasing intraday targets.
In summary, the market’s current architecture offers a rare blend of technical strength, sectoral tailwinds, and macro‑friendly news. Aligning your trades with the EMA‑driven momentum while respecting the 25,000‑25,050 support zone can position you to capture the upside—or protect against the downside—over the coming weeks.