- Net profit jumped 278% YoY, EPS surged 175% in Q3 FY26.
- EBITDA grew 43% quarter‑on‑quarter, indicating rising operating leverage.
- Backward integration and a 15 MW captive solar project are slashing costs.
- Technicals show a sustained downtrend; 50‑day EMA at ₹52 is a strong resistance.
- Housing‑and‑infrastructure pipelines may push the stock above ₹55.
You missed the biggest earnings surprise of the quarter—VMS TMT's profit exploded.
While the market fixated on the stock’s recent dip, the company delivered a jaw‑dropping earnings beat that reshapes the risk‑reward equation.
Indian Stock Market Sees Rebound Amid Global Market Trends
Why VMS TMT's Q3 FY26 Earnings Defy the Downtrend
VMS TMT reported total income of ₹202.51 crore in Q3 FY26, up 10.6% QoQ, and an EBITDA of ₹17.53 crore, a 43.4% surge. More strikingly, net profit surged 277.8% to ₹8.04 crore, pushing EPS to ₹1.62—a 174.6% jump. These numbers are not merely statistical blips; they signal a structural shift driven by higher plant utilization and a balanced demand mix across retail and institutional customers.
The nine‑month FY26 figures reinforce the narrative: revenue of ₹598.84 crore, EBITDA of ₹50.38 crore, and a net profit of ₹18.74 crore. The EPS of ₹4.67 illustrates a trajectory that outpaces many peers in the Indian steel and metal fabrication space.
How Backward Integration Is Re‑shaping VMS TMT’s Cost Structure
The company’s recent investment in a billet (CCM) facility has created a self‑sufficient raw‑material pipeline. By internalizing a critical input, VMS TMT has insulated itself from volatile steel prices, tightening margins and enhancing pricing power. This backward integration also fuels better inventory turns, lowering working‑capital requirements.
Coupled with the 15 MW captive solar power project, the firm is on track to cut energy costs significantly. Energy typically accounts for 20‑30% of operating expense in metal processing; a renewable source can shave off a sizable chunk, further improving EBITDA margins.
Technical Outlook: What the 50‑Day EMA and Price Pattern Reveal
On the chart, VMS TMT is locked in a lower‑top, lower‑bottom pattern, a classic sign of a sustained downtrend. The 50‑day exponential moving average (50‑EMA) sits at ₹52, acting as a hard ceiling. Each rally meets resistance at this level, and selling pressure intensifies on every bounce.
Current support is hovering around ₹44, while immediate resistance is at ₹52. Breakthrough of the 50‑EMA could trigger algorithmic buying and a short‑cover rally, potentially propelling the stock toward the ₹55‑₹58 range, where historical volatility narrows and institutional buying typically resurges.
Sector Context: What’s Happening in Indian Steel & Infrastructure
The Indian steel sector is entering a cyclical upswing, buoyed by government‑backed housing schemes and increased infrastructure spending. Demand for high‑strength steel in housing, roads, and bridges is accelerating, benefitting companies with strong dealer networks.
Peers such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel have reported modest revenue growth, but VMS TMT’s niche focus on specialized billets and value‑added processing gives it a higher margin upside. Moreover, the firm’s retail‑led distribution through 227 dealers in Gujarat provides a granular demand gauge that larger integrated steel producers lack.
Historical Parallel: Past Turnarounds and What They Teach Us
Looking back, Indian mid‑cap manufacturers that achieved backward integration and cost‑control initiatives—such as Jindal Stainless in 2018—experienced a 3‑year earnings acceleration, followed by a stock price rally of 70‑80%. The pattern often involves an initial earnings shock, a period of technical weakness, and a subsequent price breakout once fundamentals are fully priced in.
VMS TMT mirrors this trajectory: earnings have surged, cost fundamentals are improving, yet the market remains skeptical, reflected in the technical downtrend. History suggests that patient capital that recognizes the earnings‑technical divergence can capture outsized returns.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Cases for VMS TMT
Bull Case: Continued EBITDA expansion beyond 45% YoY, successful solar project completion reducing energy costs by 15%, and a decisive break above the 50‑EMA at ₹52. This scenario could push the stock to ₹60 within 12 months, delivering a 20% upside from current levels.
Bear Case: Persistent selling pressure, failure to sustain plant utilization, or macro‑economic headwinds curbing housing demand. If the stock remains below ₹44, further downside to ₹38 is plausible, especially if debt repayment timelines slip.
Risk management hinges on watching the 50‑EMA breach, quarterly utilization trends, and progress on the captive solar project. Align position size with your risk tolerance, and consider scaling in on a breakout rather than chasing the current dip.