Varun Beverages, a major PepsiCo franchisee, has seen its shares decline significantly in 2025. After nearly a decade of growth, investors have lost confidence due to weak financial performance. The company's shares fell 32% in the first two months of the year but rebounded in March with a 24% surge.
However, the recovery was short-lived, and the stock slipped back into negative territory. Despite some positive months, the gains were not enough to support the stock, which has declined 26% so far in 2025, trading at ₹471 apiece.
If the shares close the year in the negative, it will mark their first annual decline since their listing in 2016. The shares had maintained an uninterrupted winning streak, closing every year with positive returns. The year 2022 was the standout, with a gain of 123%.
Varun Beverages has entered the alcoholic beverage segment through a partnership with Carlsberg Breweries to pilot beer sales in African markets. However, this move has not improved investor sentiment. The company's 9MCY25 performance has remained subdued despite capacity additions, largely due to an early and prolonged monsoon.
The company has issued three bonus shares since July 25, 2019, and has split the face value of its shares twice since June 15, 2023. The last split was from ₹5 to ₹2 in 2024, and the stock has been trading on an ex-split basis since September 12, 2024.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, notes that Varun Beverages has been trapped in the ₹536–₹445 range for six months. He states that the base remains loose, volatility is rising, and volume patterns show no significant accumulation, leaving the stock vulnerable.
Jain projects that a breach below ₹445 would trigger the next leg lower, opening a clear path toward ₹329.75. He recommends a sell on breakdown setup until supply diminishes.
Despite temporary disruptions, brokerages such as Axis Securities, JM Financial, and Motilal Oswal remain bullish on the company's long-term growth prospects. They expect strong growth driven by key strategies such as:
These strategies could strengthen the company's long-term growth and profitability, with target prices ranging between ₹570 and ₹580 per share.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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