- Supreme Court wipes out the 18% reciprocal tariff, reducing India‑US export duties to 10%.
- Gift Nifty futures already outpaced the Nifty 50 by ~200 points, hinting at a massive Sensex gap‑up.
- Gold stays anchored near $4,880/oz; a breakout could push it above $5,350.
- Silver finds support at $70/oz; geopolitical spikes may drive it toward $86‑$90.
- Sector‑specific duties on steel, aluminium, autos and semiconductors remain unchanged – watch the defensive plays.
You’re about to miss the biggest market catalyst of the week. The US Supreme Court just threw out the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff framework, and the ripple effects are already reverberating through Dalal Street, precious metals and export‑heavy sectors. In the next few minutes you’ll learn why the market gap‑up is likely, how safe‑haven metals could fire higher, and what concrete trades you can position right now.
Supreme Court Set to Rule on Trump Tariffs: What It Means for Indian Investors
Why the Supreme Court’s Tariff Reversal Is a Bullish Signal for Indian Exporters
The Court’s decision eliminates the 18% reciprocal duty that was part of the India‑US trade framework under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Effectively, 55% of India’s export basket to the United States now faces a flat 10% tariff, down from a blended rate that could exceed 20% when the reciprocal component was applied. This translates to roughly $50 billion of export value—spanning textiles, gems, and labour‑intensive goods—being instantly more price‑competitive in the world’s largest consumer market.
Historically, a similar tariff rollback in 2018 after the US‑China Phase‑One deal sparked a 6‑8% rally in Indian export‑oriented stocks within weeks. The same pattern is emerging now, amplified by the fact that the decision was unanimous, signaling a stable policy outlook beyond the current political turbulence.
How the Gap‑Up in Gift Nifty Translates to Sensex Momentum
While the Indian market was closed, the Gift Nifty futures for the February 26 expiry surged to 25,764, about 200 points above the Nifty 50’s close of 25,571. Historically, a Gift Nifty premium of more than 100 points has preceded a strong opening gap for the underlying index. The premium reflects overnight trader optimism and the pricing in of macro‑driven catalysts, in this case the tariff relief.
Analysts project that the Sensex could open 500‑600 points higher, driven by a cascade of buying in export‑linked equities such as Tata Textiles, Aditya Birla Fashion and Hindustan Gold. The upside is further reinforced by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who are likely to redeploy capital that was previously parked in safe‑haven assets.
Gold and Silver: Safe‑Haven Surge Amid Trade Uncertainty
Even as the tariff decision removes a specific cost pressure, President Trump’s immediate announcement of a 10% global tariff on all countries reignites geopolitical risk premiums. Gold remains anchored near $4,880 per ounce (₹1,49,800 per 10 gm) with immediate resistance at $5,100‑$5,120. A decisive break would open a path to $5,350, echoing the 2022 rally when US‑China tensions peaked.
Silver is defending the $70/oz (₹2,25,000 per kg) level, with resistance at $86‑$88. Should trade talks stall or the Middle‑East situation deteriorate, the metal could sprint to $95‑$100, mirroring the 2020 pandemic‑driven spike.
Sector‑Specific Tariffs That Remain Intact
It’s crucial to note that the Court’s ruling does not touch duties imposed under separate statutory authorities. Steel, aluminium, automobiles, semiconductors and other strategic products continue to face elevated tariffs. This selective approach means that while broad‑based exporters gain, defensive sectors such as steel and auto manufacturers may still face margin pressure.
Investors should therefore balance exposure: overweight export‑driven equities, but maintain a hedge with quality defensive stocks that benefit from the ongoing protectionist stance—think JSW Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Tata Motors.
Technical Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices
Gold’s chart shows a strong bullish flag forming above the $4,880 base. The 50‑day moving average sits at $4,950, providing dynamic support. A close above $5,100 would likely trigger a momentum‑based rally, with the next major target at $5,350. Silver, on the other hand, is in a symmetrical triangle between $70 and $86. A breakout above $86, especially on higher volume, could set the stage for a rapid move toward $95‑$100, given the prevailing risk‑off sentiment.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case: Leverage the tariff relief by buying export‑oriented equities (Tata Textiles, Aditya Birla Fashion). Add gold and silver exposure through ETFs or physical holdings to capture safe‑haven upside. Use the Gift Nifty premium as a cue for intraday long positions in the Sensex.
Bear Case: If Trump’s 10% global tariff escalates into a broader trade war, defensive sectors may suffer. Hedge export exposure with put options on key export stocks and consider shorting the Sensex futures if the opening gap proves fleeting. Keep a stop‑loss around the 50‑day moving averages for metals to protect against rapid reversals.
Bottom line: The Supreme Court decision is a catalyst, not a guarantee. Align your portfolio to the upside of tariff relief while staying prepared for the next wave of protectionist moves.