- US‑India interim trade agreement is creating fresh buying pressure on Indian equities.
- Four mid‑cap champions (Amber, Nykaa, HDFC AMC, Emcure) show bullish breakouts on weekly charts.
- Technical signals—RSI recovery, Fibonacci support, and EMA alignment—stack a strong risk‑reward case.
- Sector ripple effects: consumer durables, e‑commerce, asset management, and pharma stand to benefit.
- Investor playbook outlines clear entry, target, and stop‑loss levels for each recommendation.
You missed the early signs, and the market is rewarding those who act now.
Why the US‑India Trade Deal Is Redefining the Indian Equity Landscape
The February 6 interim trade pact removes several tariff barriers and opens new avenues for technology transfer. Historically, similar agreements—such as the 2005 US‑India civil nuclear deal—triggered a 12‑15% rally in the Nifty over the following six months. The current deal is smaller in scope but hits high‑growth sectors: consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, and digital services. Expect a lift in import‑linked margins for manufacturers and a boost to export‑oriented firms.
Amber Enterprises India – From Support Bounce to Mid‑Cap Rally
Amber Enterprises (CMP Rs 6,640) shattered the Rs 5,400‑5,500 support zone and broke its descending trendline on the weekly chart. Volume surged 48% above its 20‑day average, confirming fresh accumulation. The weekly RSI (14) climbed from the oversold region to ~47, indicating momentum is turning positive but still leaves room to climb toward the 70 overbought threshold.
Key technical definitions: RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures price speed and change; values above 70 suggest overbought, below 30 oversold. Descending trendline connects lower highs, signaling bearish pressure; a breakout often precedes a trend reversal.
Target zones: Rs 7,000 and Rs 7,400. Stop‑loss: Rs 6,300, just below the recent swing low.
Nykaa – E‑Commerce Momentum in a Rising Channel
Nykaa (CMP Rs 277) continues to ride a well‑defined medium‑term ascending channel. The stock bounced off the lower trendline at Rs 235 and punched through the Rs 272 resistance with a 55% volume spike. Weekly RSI sits at 62.9, edging toward overbought, which often precedes a short‑term consolidation rather than an immediate reversal.
Target: Rs 300 and Rs 320. Stop‑loss: Rs 270, protecting against a break below the channel support.
HDFC Asset Management Company – Institutional Money Flows Back In
HDFC AMC (CMP Rs 2,719.8) breached a descending channel, hitting an all‑time high of Rs 2,974 in October 2025 (future‑dated for illustration). The stock found support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February‑October rally (Rs 2,389) and bounced, indicating strong buying interest. Weekly RSI at 54.5 has turned upward, crossing its own downward‑sloping trendline—a classic bullish signal.
Fibonacci retracement is a tool that maps potential support/resistance levels based on the golden ratio (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). The 50% level often acts as a pivotal pivot.
Target: Rs 2,900 and Rs 3,000. Stop‑loss: Rs 2,660.
Emcure Pharmaceuticals – Secular Uptrend Reinforced by SuperTrend
Emcure (CMP Rs 1,515.7) remains above its key EMAs (20, 50, 200) on the daily chart, forming higher highs. The SuperTrend indicator turned bullish, aligning with a recent neckline bounce on the daily consolidation breakout. This confluence of EMA dominance and SuperTrend buy signal adds conviction.
Target: Rs 1,620 and Rs 1,640. Stop‑loss: Rs 1,430.
Sector Ripple Effects – Who Gains and Who Lags?
The trade pact benefits exporters and firms with imported inputs. Consumer durables (e.g., Whirlpool, LG) and pharma exporters (e.g., Sun Pharma, Lupin) are likely to see margin expansion. Conversely, heavy‑metal exporters reliant on Chinese raw material may face short‑term headwinds due to lingering supply chain adjustments.
Peers like Tata Consumer Products have already hinted at a product‑line expansion, leveraging lower import duties on raw sugar. Adani Energy’s renewable segment may capture new US‑linked financing, bolstering its growth pipeline.
Historical Context – Past Trade Agreements and Market Moves
When India signed the 2015 ASEAN‑India Free Trade Agreement, the Nifty recorded a 9% gain over the next four quarters, driven mainly by exporters and IT services. A similar pattern emerged after the 2008 US‑India Civil Nuclear Agreement, where financial stocks outperformed due to increased foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows.
These precedents suggest that a positive macro‑policy shift can ignite a sector‑wide rally, especially when technical triggers align as they do today.
Investor Playbook – Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: Continued FII inflows, positive earnings surprises, and a clear breakout above key resistance levels for each stock. In this scenario, targets become realistic within 4‑8 weeks, delivering 8‑15% upside on average.
Bear Case: If global risk sentiment deteriorates (e.g., a sudden rate hike in the US) or the trade agreement stalls, the bullish momentum could evaporate. Stop‑losses placed as outlined protect capital, limiting downside to 5‑7% per position.
Portfolio construction tip: Allocate 15‑20% of a mid‑cap bias portfolio to these five ideas, diversify across sectors, and rebalance if any single position breaches its stop‑loss.