- Revenue jumped 14% YoY to INR 3.8 bn, beating consensus.
- Same‑store sales (+8.2%) break a six‑quarter flat streak – first real momentum.
- Dine‑in volume surged 25% while delivery transactions grew 29% YoY.
- Motilal Oswal keeps a neutral stance, pricing the stock at INR 215 on an 8× EV/EBITDA multiple.
- Weak RoCE (Return on Capital Employed) suggests cash‑return concerns despite top‑line growth.
You missed United Foodbrands' revenue boom – and that could cost you.
United Foodbrands Beats Revenue Forecast: What the Numbers Reveal
United Foodbrands, the franchise operator behind the BBQ India brand, reported consolidated revenue of INR 3.8 bn for the quarter, a 14% year‑on‑year rise that comfortably eclipsed market expectations. The surge was powered by two complementary engines: dine‑in sales, which climbed 15% YoY to INR 3.2 bn, and delivery, which added a 14% lift to INR 0.6 bn. Volume metrics tell a deeper story – dine‑in volume jumped 25% while delivery transactions surged 29%, indicating both price resilience and strong customer acquisition.
Same‑Store Sales Turnaround: How 8.2% Growth Beats Six‑Quarter Slump
After a six‑quarter period of flat or declining same‑store sales (SSS), United Foodbrands recorded an 8.2% SSS growth for Q3FY26. Sequentially, the brand posted 5% same‑store sales growth in October 2025, a modest uptick in November, and a more pronounced acceleration in December that extended into January 2026. This pattern suggests the company has successfully navigated the post‑pandemic dip that plagued many QSRs, re‑establishing footfall and order frequency across its 300‑plus outlets.
Delivery vs Dine‑in: Shifting Consumer Preferences in India’s QSR Segment
While dine‑in still accounts for the bulk of revenue, the delivery side is growing at a faster clip. A 29% rise in transaction count signals that Indian consumers are increasingly comfortable ordering premium grilled fare through apps. The margin implication is mixed: delivery often carries higher logistic costs, but the higher transaction frequency can offset the expense if the company optimizes last‑mile delivery partnerships.
Sector Pulse: Indian Quick‑Service Restaurants (QSR) in 2025‑26
The Indian QSR landscape is entering a second growth wave. Disposable income has risen above INR 40,000 per month for the median urban household, while digital penetration now exceeds 70%, fuelling online food orders. Industry analysts project a 12% CAGR for QSR revenue through 2028, led by premium‑grill concepts and regional flavors. United Foodbrands’ 14% top‑line growth is thus in line with, or slightly ahead of, the sector’s macro trend.
Competitor Landscape: Tata Consumer, Jubilant FoodWorks, and Adani’s Food Play
Key peers are reacting differently. Tata Consumer’s acquisition of a regional grill chain has added 5% incremental revenue, but integration costs are pressuring margins. Jubilant FoodWorks (Domino’s India) reported a 9% revenue rise, driven largely by aggressive discounting – a strategy that compresses EBITDA. Adani’s recent entry into the QSR space focuses on hyper‑local cloud kitchens, targeting the same delivery‑first consumer. United Foodbrands distinguishes itself by a balanced dine‑in/delivery mix and a relatively lean outlet network, potentially offering a more sustainable cost base.
Historical Parallel: When QSRs Rebounded After 2020 Downturn
During the 2020‑21 pandemic shock, many QSRs posted double‑digit same‑store sales declines. Those that pivoted quickly to delivery and introduced contact‑less dining rebounded by Q4 2022, posting average revenue growth of 11% YoY. United Foodbrands appears to be replicating that rebound pattern, but with a stronger dine‑in component, suggesting a less pandemic‑dependent recovery.
Valuation Deep‑Dive: Why 8× EV/EBITDA Implies a Weak RoCE
Motilal Oswal’s neutral rating is anchored on an 8× EV/EBITDA multiple for FY27E, translating to a target price of INR 215. The implied Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) sits below 12%, below the industry average of ~15%. A low RoCE indicates the firm is generating modest returns on the capital deployed, raising concerns about long‑term cash generation despite the revenue upside. Investors should watch for improvements in asset turnover and capex efficiency before the valuation gap narrows.
Investor Playbook: Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bull Case
- Continued same‑store sales acceleration beyond 8% quarterly, driven by new menu launches.
- Strategic partnership with a leading delivery aggregator reduces logistics cost, improving EBITDA margin.
- Expansion of outlet count by 15% in Tier‑2 cities, leveraging lower real‑estate costs.
- RoCE improves to >15% as operating cash flow climbs, justifying a multiple compression to 10× EV/EBITDA.
Bear Case
- Delivery cost escalation erodes margin, pushing EBITDA growth below 5% YoY.
- Intensifying price competition from low‑cost QSR chains forces discounting, squeezing top‑line.
- Capex overruns on new store roll‑out inflate asset base, further weakening RoCE.
- Market sentiment shifts, driving the multiple down to 6× EV/EBITDA and pushing price below INR 180.
Bottom line: United Foodbrands is posting solid top‑line momentum, but the weak RoCE and modest valuation cushion mean the upside is contingent on margin improvement and efficient capital deployment.