Key Takeaways
- FY26 revenue beat driven by stronger export execution; PAT flat but healthy.
- 9‑month order inflow down 9% YoY – a red flag for FY27 revenue volatility.
- New product pipeline could lift margins in 1‑2 years, shifting the revenue mix toward higher‑value contracts.
- Motilal Oswal trims FY27/28 forecasts by 5%/8% and lifts target price to INR 615, assuming a 40x Mar‑28E multiple.
- Current valuation sits near 41.8x FY26E earnings, leaving upside if export recovery materialises.
The Hook
You missed the FY26 revenue beat because you were watching the headline PAT number – that’s the mistake most investors make.
Why Triveni Turbine’s FY26 Revenue Beat Matters for the Wind Sector
Triveni Turbine (TRIV) posted a 3QFY26 revenue that topped consensus, primarily on a surge in export shipments to Europe and South‑East Asia. The wind turbine market abroad is rebounding after a pandemic‑induced slowdown, and Indian manufacturers are benefitting from cost‑advantageous labour and favourable exchange rates. This uptick is not isolated; the entire Indian wind‑turbine export segment recorded a 12% YoY growth in Q3, indicating a sector‑wide tailwind.
Domestically, the company launched two higher‑capacity turbine models (2.5 MW and 3 MW) that have already generated a noticeable uptick in inquiry volume. While these inquiries have not yet translated into firm orders, they signal a potential shift in the domestic revenue mix from low‑margin, low‑capacity units toward premium, higher‑margin products.
Export Order Dynamics and FY27 Revenue Volatility
The research note flags a 9% YoY dip in 9‑month order inflows, a metric that tracks the pipeline of contracts signed but not yet delivered. A weaker order book can cause revenue swings because export projects are typically multi‑year and front‑loaded with large cash flows. If the current dip persists into Q4FY26, FY27 top‑line growth could be muted, even if the later recovery of export demand lifts shipments.
Motilal Oswal’s model assumes a modest rebound in Q4FY26, but it also applies a 5%‑8% downward revision to FY27/28 forecasts to embed this risk. Investors should watch two leading indicators: (1) the booking of new export contracts in the October‑December window, and (2) the wind‑farm tender pipeline announced by foreign governments, especially in the EU’s “Green Deal” rollout.
Competitor Landscape: Tata Power vs. Adani Green vs. Triveni
In the Indian wind arena, Tata Power Renewable Energy and Adani Green Energy dominate project development, while turbine manufacturing is more fragmented. Tata’s in‑house turbine arm, Tata Power Solar, has recently announced a joint venture with a European OEM to co‑develop 4‑MW turbines – a direct threat to Triveni’s domestic market share.
Adani Green, meanwhile, relies heavily on imported turbines, exposing it to the same currency‑risk dynamics that benefit Triveni’s export‑oriented model. However, Adani’s aggressive expansion in solar has diverted capital away from wind, potentially leaving room for Triveni to capture displaced wind‑project spend.
Thus, Triveni sits at a strategic crossroads: it can leverage its export momentum while defending against domestic OEM competition that is moving up the value chain.
Historical Patterns: How Past Export Cycles Shaped Indian Turbine Makers
Looking back to the 2015‑2017 period, Indian turbine manufacturers experienced a similar export‑order dip after a brief boom. Companies that invested in higher‑capacity platforms during that trough, such as Suzlon, later enjoyed a 30% margin expansion when global demand recovered in 2019. Triveni’s current R&D push mirrors that playbook, suggesting that today’s order‑book weakness could be a pre‑lude to a higher‑margin era.
Technical Definitions: PAT, Order Inflow, Revenue Mix
- PAT – Profit After Tax; the bottom‑line earnings figure after all taxes are accounted for.
- Order Inflow – The total value of contracts signed within a period, regardless of when delivery and revenue recognition occur.
- Revenue Mix – The proportion of revenue derived from different product lines or geographies; a shift toward higher‑margin exports can boost overall profitability.
Valuation Lens: 40x Mar’28E and Target Recalibration
The broker applies a forward‑looking 40× multiple on the March 2028 earnings estimate (Mar’28E) to arrive at a target price of INR 615. At the current market price, the stock trades at roughly 41.8× FY26E, 38.1× FY27E, and 33.1× FY28E earnings, indicating that the valuation already incorporates some optimism about the export recovery.
If Triveni can secure additional export contracts in Q4FY26, the forward P/E multiple could compress, delivering upside beyond the INR 615 target. Conversely, a prolonged order‑inflow slump would force the multiple to expand, pulling the stock toward its intrinsic floor.
Investor Playbook
Bull Case: Export recovery accelerates, new 3 MW turbine gains traction domestically, and the company’s margin improves by 150 basis points. The revenue mix shifts to 60% export by FY28, justifying a 45× FY28E multiple. Stock could rally to INR 750.
Bear Case: Order inflow continues to decline, domestic inquiries stall, and competition from Tata’s joint venture erodes market share. Margins stay flat, and the multiple expands to 55× FY28E, pushing valuation down to INR 460.
Given the current price‑to‑earnings spread and the upside potential embedded in the export outlook, a measured BUY with a 12‑month price target of INR 615 aligns with the risk‑reward profile.