Trent’s stock took a sharp turn on January 6, sliding more than 9% after the company posted its provisional Q3 FY26 numbers.
What the numbers showed
For the October‑December quarter, Trent reported total product sales of ₹5,220 crore, up 17% year‑on‑year. The same‑store revenue grew at a similar pace, and the company added 17 new Westside stores and 48 new Zudio outlets, including four in the UAE.
Why the share price fell
Analysts say the drop is not a one‑off reaction but part of a broader re‑rating. The market had been pricing Trent as a high‑growth, consistently expanding retailer. The latest results hinted that growth may be slowing, prompting investors to reassess future earnings.
Analyst perspectives
- INVasset PMS – Highlights that the moderation in growth is prompting a shift from growth extrapolation to growth verification. Volatility may stay high until demand recovery is clearer.
- Motilal Oswal – Notes revenue growth of 17% fell short of its 20% estimate, while revenue per store dropped about 11%, suggesting cannibalisation. Still maintains a “Buy” rating.
- Antique Stock Broking – Lowers target price to ₹5,700 from ₹6,650 but keeps a “Buy” outlook, seeing upside of more than 50% from current levels.
- Citi – Says growth matches its 18% expectation and keeps a “Sell” rating with a target of ₹4,350.
- HDFC Securities – Upgrades to “Add” with a target of ₹4,700, citing a valuation cut and strong franchise fundamentals.
Technical view
The stock is trading below its 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages, indicating a broader downtrend. RSI is near the 40 level, showing weakening momentum. Unless the price breaks back above ₹4,500 on strong volume, the bias remains bearish, with downside risk toward ₹3,800‑₹3,700.
Historical performance
Over the last six months, Trent’s share price has fallen about 27%, and it’s down roughly 42% in the past year after a 480% rally over the previous five years. The current P/E ratio sits above 100, reflecting high expectations.
What investors can consider
- Watch for any sign of demand recovery or improved same‑store sales.
- Monitor the stock’s technical levels, especially the ₹4,500 resistance.
- Consider the spread in broker target prices – some see upside, others are cautious.
Remember, this is perspective, not prediction. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.