- Thermax stock slipped 0.7% to Rs 2,939.60 despite a 5% sales boost YoY.
- Revenue rose 11.4% to Rs 10,388.69 Cr in FY 2025, outpacing the Mid‑Cap index.
- Volume surged, indicating heightened trader interest.
- Recent dividend of Rs 14 and an amalgamation scheme hint at strategic reshuffle.
- Analyst sentiment turns sharply bearish on major platforms.
You missed Thermax’s subtle price wobble—now the real story unfolds.
Why Thermax’s Revenue Growth Beats Midcap Trends
Thermax reported FY 2025 revenue of Rs 10,388.69 Cr, a solid 11.4% jump from Rs 9,323.46 Cr a year earlier. By contrast, the Nifty Midcap 150 index recorded a modest 4.2% rise over the same period. This outperformance stems from stronger demand in the engineering‑services segment, especially in energy‑efficient solutions for industrial clients. The company’s focus on high‑margin projects such as waste‑to‑energy and district heating has widened its top‑line growth while protecting EBITDA margins from raw‑material cost volatility.
How Thermax’s Peers Tata Power & Adani Total Energy React
Within the Indian power‑equipment space, Tata Power’s engineering arm posted a 7% revenue rise, while Adani Total Energy’s EPC division logged a 9% increase. Both firms are expanding renewable‑energy portfolios, yet neither has matched Thermax’s 11% surge. The divergence suggests Thermax’s niche in customized thermal solutions is gaining market share, potentially eroding the order‑book of its larger rivals. Investors should monitor order inflow data from Tata Power’s renewable EPC contracts and Adani’s solar‑module production to gauge whether Thermax’s advantage can be sustained.
Historical Patterns: What Past Midcap Dips Signaled
Mid‑cap stocks that experience a 0.5‑1% dip on volume spikes often precede a corrective rally. For example, in Q3 2022, a 0.8% decline in a leading heat‑exchanger maker was followed by a 12% upside in the next two months as earnings beat expectations. The pattern typically reflects profit‑taking after a strong earnings run, not fundamental weakness. Thermax’s current price action mirrors that historic template, implying a potential short‑term rebound if earnings guidance remains positive.
Technical Signals: Volume Surge and Price Momentum
A surge in average daily volume to 1.8 million shares—about 2.5× the 30‑day average—signals heightened market participation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, just below the neutral 50 line, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The 20‑day moving average (MA) crossed above the 50‑day MA last week, forming a “golden cross” that many technical analysts interpret as a bullish signal. However, the price remains under the 200‑day MA, a long‑term resistance level that must be breached for a sustained rally.
Corporate Actions: Dividend, Amalgamation, and What They Mean
Thermax declared a final dividend of Rs 14 per share in May 2025, reflecting confidence in cash‑flow generation. More recently, the board approved an amalgamation scheme with its step‑down subsidiaries, a move designed to streamline operations, cut overlapping overhead, and improve net‑profit margins. Historically, successful amalgamations have lifted earnings per share (EPS) by 3‑5% in the first post‑integration year, as seen with a comparable Indian engineering firm in FY 2021.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: If Thermax’s Q3 FY 2025‑26 earnings beat consensus—driven by higher order conversion rates and cost‑optimization from the amalgamation—the stock could rally 8‑10% over the next quarter. Key catalysts include a confirmed contract pipeline in renewable‑energy retrofits and a break above the 200‑day MA.
Bear Case: Should the bearish sentiment on analyst platforms translate into lower earnings forecasts—perhaps due to raw‑material price spikes or delayed project approvals—the share could slip another 5‑7%, testing the Rs 2,800 support level. A failure to clear the amalgamation’s regulatory hurdles would also weigh on confidence.
Bottom line: Thermax’s fundamentals are strong, but market psychology is currently skewed bearish. Smart investors will watch the volume‑driven price action, earnings guidance, and the progress of the amalgamation to decide whether to add on the dip or tighten stops.