- US‑EU tariff escalation sparked a global risk‑off, dragging Indian indices lower.
- Nifty 50 faces a decisive test at 25,500‑25,650; breach could set the tone for the next week.
- Bank Nifty holds above its 20‑day SMA, but a sustained close over 60,000 is needed for bullish momentum.
- Silver and gold break key price barriers, offering potential safe‑haven hedges.
- Rupee slides toward 90.90/USD, with support at 90.45; currency risk adds another layer of volatility.
- Top intraday picks span banking, IT, pharma and finance, each backed by technical patterns.
You ignored the tariff warning and paid the price today.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise tariffs on several European economies sent shockwaves through global markets, and Indian equities felt the tremor. Foreign investors accelerated outflows while the rupee weakened, creating a defensive mood across the board. The market isn’t just reacting to headlines; it’s re‑pricing fundamentals, and the next few sessions will separate the resilient from the reckless.
Why the Nifty 50's Weak Texture Signals a Potential Sell‑off
Technical analysts see the Nifty 50 trapped in a narrow band between 25,500 and 25,650. The consensus view is that a break below 25,500 could open the door to a slide toward 25,350‑25,400, while a clean run above 25,650 may propel the index to 25,800‑25,850. The key is level‑based trading: stop‑losses tighten, and liquidity concentrates around these pivots.
Sector‑wide, financials and IT are the most exposed. The banking segment, already sensitive to foreign fund flows, mirrors the index’s fragility. On the flip side, consumer staples and pharma have shown relative resilience, echoing a historical pattern where defensive stocks out‑perform during tariff‑driven risk‑off phases.
How Bank Nifty's 20‑Day SMA Support Shapes the Next Move
Bank Nifty found firm support near its 20‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a dynamic level that smooths price over the past 20 sessions. Buying interest resurfaced at this zone, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed into bullish territory, indicating upward momentum.
However, analysts stress that a decisive breakout above 60,000 – and a hold for two to three days – is required to validate a sustained rally. Failure to do so could see the index retest the 59,500 support, echoing the 2022 pattern where a brief SMA bounce turned into a deeper correction.
Silver and Gold: Commodity Trends That Can Hedge Your Portfolio
COMEX silver surged to a fresh high of $94.74 per ounce, translating to a 5.9% jump from Monday’s close. In India, the MCX silver price cracked the ₹3,05,000 barrier and eyes ₹3,15,000 per kg. A dip below ₹2,90,000 could attract buying at ₹2,85,000, creating a classic “buy‑the‑dip” setup.
Gold also rallied, with COMEX trading at $4,673.75 per ounce (+1.7%). On the MCX, gold clings to the ₹1,44,500‑₹1,45,000 range, supported by the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at ₹1,40,400. A clear breach above ₹1,45,000 could trigger a run toward ₹1,46,000‑₹1,50,000. For investors, these metals offer a hedge against equity volatility and a weakening rupee.
Rupee vs Dollar: Currency Pressure Amid US Tariff Shock
The Indian rupee slipped to 90.91 per U.S. dollar, down 14 paise, after the tariff announcement revived concerns over the India‑U.S. trade pact. Immediate support lies near 90.45, while resistance is around 91.25. A breach of 91.25 could invite further depreciation, echoing the 2020 episode when tariff rhetoric pushed the rupee past 90.5 and widened the yield spread on Indian sovereign bonds.
For foreign‑exchange‑linked portfolios, the rupee’s trajectory will affect import‑heavy stocks and any USD‑denominated debt exposure. Investors should monitor the RBI’s intervention bandwidth and global risk sentiment.
Intraday Stock Picks: What the Top Analysts Are Targeting
Eight stocks emerged as the day’s intraday favourites, each backed by a clear technical pattern:
- Federal Bank – Buying at ₹279.70, target ₹300, stop‑loss ₹270. Higher highs suggest a breakout from its recent all‑time high.
- Torrent Pharma – Buy at ₹4,087, target ₹4,371, stop‑loss ₹3,945. The stock rides a strong upward trend above all moving averages.
- L&T Finance – Buy at ₹299, target ₹312, stop‑loss ₹292. A bullish reversal pattern signals a short‑term upside.
- Infosys – Buy at ₹1,680, target ₹1,720, stop‑loss ₹1,650. Consistent bullish candles keep the momentum alive.
- SAIL – Buy at ₹150, target ₹162, stop‑loss ₹145. Momentum and volume support a continued rise.
- Hero Motocorp – Buy at ₹5,762, target ₹5,950, stop‑loss ₹5,670. Support near ₹5,600 fuels a potential rally.
- Bajaj Finance – Buy at ₹969.45, target ₹1,030, stop‑loss ₹950. Holding above the 200‑period MA strengthens the bullish case.
- PB Fintech – Buy at ₹1,681, target ₹1,770, stop‑loss ₹1,645. Recovery from a steep correction points to upside potential.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Cases
Bull Case
- Break above Nifty 25,650 and Bank Nifty 60,000, confirming risk‑on sentiment.
- Silver and gold maintain upward trajectories, providing defensive buffers.
- Rupee stabilises above 90.45, limiting foreign‑exchange drag on import‑linked equities.
- Technical patterns in the eight intraday picks stay intact, delivering short‑term upside.
Bear Case
- Nifty falls below 25,500, triggering a wave of algorithmic sell‑offs.
- Bank Nifty fails to hold above 59,500, exposing banking stocks to deeper corrections.
- Rupee breaches 91.25, prompting capital outflows and higher cost of external financing.
- Commodity rallies stall, removing the hedge that many portfolios rely on.
Position sizing, stop‑loss discipline, and monitoring the key price thresholds above will be the difference between preserving capital and catching a market‑wide tailwind. Stay alert, trade the levels, and let the data—not the headlines—drive your decisions.