- Six hand‑picked stocks showing bullish reversals on key moving averages.
- Budget‑induced STT hike has faded; fundamentals and technicals now drive the market.
- Support zones around 25,000 on the Nifty keep downside risk limited.
- Clear entry, target, and stop‑loss levels give you a disciplined trade plan.
- Sector‑wide catalysts in metals, infrastructure, and life‑sciences add extra tailwinds.
You missed the early warning signs—now's the moment to lock in short‑term gains.
Monday’s market rally erased the fear of the Finance Minister’s STT hike and sent the Sensex up 944 points (1.17%) and the Nifty 50 to 25,088.40 (+1.06%). With the budget speech behind us, traders are refocusing on price action, volume, and the ever‑watchful 200‑day simple moving average (200‑SMA). As long as the Nifty stays below the 25,250‑point 200‑SMA, sentiment stays cautious, but a bounce above that line could trigger a fresh wave of buying.
How the Budget’s STT Hike Is Re‑shaping Short‑Term Sentiment
The Finance Minister’s announcement of a higher Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on futures‑and‑options contracts sparked headlines, but the market’s quick rebound suggests that the impact on equity pricing is limited. STT primarily affects high‑frequency traders; retail and long‑term investors are largely insulated. Consequently, the short‑term rally is being driven by technical breakout patterns rather than policy drag.
Nifty 50’s 200‑Day SMA: The Critical Barrier for Momentum
The 200‑day SMA at ~25,250 acts as a long‑term trend line. When the index trades below it, many algorithms and fund managers interpret the market as bearish, capping inflows. Conversely, a sustained close above the SMA often triggers a cascade of stop‑loss orders flipping to buy, fueling a self‑reinforcing rally. Watch the 25,250 level closely; a decisive close above could open the door to a 26,000‑plus rally.
Why Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MIDHANI) Is Poised for a Quick Bounce
Mid‑term analysts see MIDHANI breaking out of a falling‑trendline resistance with expanding volume. The stock has reclaimed its short‑term exponential moving averages (EMAs) and is nudging the medium‑term EMA cluster, signaling improving momentum. Target: ₹395‑₹405. Stop‑loss: ₹324. The bullish reversal is underpinned by a higher low formation—a classic technical signal indicating that sellers are losing steam.
Why Jindal Saw (JSW) Is Set for a Short‑Term Upswing
JSW posted a clean breakout confirmed by a sharp volume spike, a hallmark of institutional participation. After the breakout, the price retraced modestly, a healthy pullback that often precedes a continuation move. The stock now sits comfortably above its short‑term EMAs, with a target range of ₹196‑₹200 and a stop‑loss at ₹162. The retracement acts as a “buy‑the‑dip” opportunity for traders.
Why Alivus Life Sciences (ALIVUS) Offers a Compelling Technical Edge
ALIVUS has carved out a higher low, indicating that the downtrend is losing momentum. The share price is trading above the immediate support zone of ₹900‑₹920 and above short‑term EMAs, while volume on the recovery is rising. Target: ₹990‑₹1,020. Stop‑loss: ₹865. The combination of a higher low and volume‑supported bounce suggests fresh accumulation at lower levels.
Why NMDC Is Gaining a Reversal Momentum
NMDC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 52, moving out of oversold territory. A bullish hammer on the daily chart, coupled with a breakout above ₹82 on rising volume, points to a short‑term upside target of ₹87.68. The stock trades above its 20‑, 50‑, and 200‑day EMAs, confirming a multi‑timeframe bullish bias. Entry at ₹81.44, stop‑loss at ₹78.42.
Why Samvardhana Motherson International (MOTHERS) Shows Consolidation Strength
MOTHERS is holding above its 200‑day EMA, with all major EMAs aligned bullishly (20‑, 50‑, 100‑, 200‑day). The RSI at 50.03 is turning upward, a sign of emerging momentum. A decisive close above ₹116.70 on strong volume could push the stock toward the ₹124 target. Entry near ₹114.09, stop‑loss at ₹109.70.
Why Welspun Corp (WELSPUN) Is Forming a Base for a Reversal
Welspun’s price is consolidating near last month’s low, creating a base formation that often precedes a breakout. The RSI at 47.35 is trending higher with bullish divergence—another reversal cue. A breakout above the ₹775 resistance, backed by volume, could set the stage for a move toward ₹850. Entry near ₹755, stop‑loss at ₹710.
Sector Trends: Metals, Infrastructure, and Life Sciences Lead the Pack
All six picks sit in sectors benefiting from the post‑budget fiscal outlook. Metals (MIDHANI, NMDC) are poised to ride higher government spending on infrastructure. The infrastructure component itself is buoyed by increased capital allocation, favoring firms like Jindal Saw. Meanwhile, life‑sciences (Alivus) are gaining from renewed R&D incentives. These macro tailwinds reinforce the technical upside for each stock.
Competitor Landscape: What Tata and Adani Are Doing
Tata Steel and Adani Enterprises have both reported mixed Q3 earnings, leaving room for smaller players to capture market share. Tata’s focus on high‑value alloy production dovetails with MIDHANI’s niche defense contracts, while Adani’s renewable push does not directly threaten Welspun’s core cement‑and‑steel portfolio. This competitive spacing adds a layer of relative strength to our shortlist.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case: The confluence of technical breakouts, supportive EMA alignments, and sector‑wide fiscal tailwinds creates a short‑term rally environment. If the Nifty 50 breaches the 25,250‑point 200‑SMA, risk‑on sentiment could push all six stocks toward the upper end of their target ranges within two weeks.
Bear Case: A sudden geopolitical shock or a sharper‑than‑expected slowdown in Q3 earnings could push the Nifty back below 25,000, triggering stop‑loss cascades. In that scenario, the stocks could retest their immediate support levels (MIDHANI ₹324, Jindal Saw ₹162, etc.) before any recovery.
Position size wisely, respect the stop‑loss levels, and monitor the Nifty’s 200‑SMA. The next 1‑2 weeks could be a high‑reward window for disciplined traders.