- SBI’s net profit rose 24% YoY to ₹21,028 cr, outpacing most peers.
- Nifty’s technical support at 25,400 is now the key driver of short‑term market bias.
- Power‑sector NBFC IREDA is raising ₹2,994 cr via QIP, hinting at renewed capital appetite.
- Tata Steel’s profit exploded 723% YoY, while Tata Motors plans price hikes amid commodity pressures.
- Multiple corporate announcements—from L&T’s data‑center push to Reliance Consumer’s Australian entry—create sector‑wide cross‑currents.
Most investors ignored the fine print. That was a mistake.
Why SBI’s Profit Surge Beats Market Expectations
SBI delivered a standalone net profit of ₹21,028 cr in Q3 FY26, a 24% year‑on‑year increase. Net interest income (NII) climbed 9% to ₹45,190 cr and operating profit before provisions rose 40% to ₹32,862 cr. The growth stems from a combination of higher loan yields, a modest dip in non‑performing assets, and an aggressive push on retail deposits that lowered funding costs.
In the context of the broader banking sector, private‑lender peers such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank posted profit growth in the high‑teens range, but none matched SBI’s operating profit acceleration. Historically, a public‑sector bank crossing the ₹20,000 cr profit barrier has often preceded a sector‑wide rally, as seen after State Bank of India’s 2018 profit surge which lifted the Nifty Banking index by over 8% in the following quarter.
How the Nifty’s 25,400 Support Level Shapes the Consolidation Play
Technical analysts are watching the 25,400 level like a safety net. As long as the index remains above this threshold, sentiment stays mildly bullish despite intraday volatility. The level aligns with a 200‑day moving average and a key Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 high, making it a strong psychological barrier.
If the Nifty slips below 25,400, the bias could flip to negative, triggering stop‑loss cascades in leveraged funds. Conversely, a clean hold above the level invites risk‑on capital to re‑enter, especially into high‑yielding banking stocks like SBI, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra.
Sector Ripple Effects: Banking, Power NBFCs, and Steel
IREDA’s decision to raise ₹2,994 cr via a qualified institutions placement (QIP) signals confidence in renewable financing. The fundraising will be structured to keep government ownership dilution under 3.76%, preserving policy support while attracting institutional capital. This move dovetails with the government’s push for green energy, potentially boosting demand for financing across the power sector.
On the metal front, Tata Steel reported a jaw‑dropping 723% jump in consolidated net profit to ₹2,689 cr, driven by higher steel prices and improved export volumes. The revenue increase of 6% to ₹57,002 cr shows that volume growth is still modest, but pricing power is strong. Investors should compare this to peers like JSW Steel, which posted a 15% profit rise, indicating Tata’s advantage may be partly cyclical.
Corporate Catalysts: From L&T’s Data Centres to Reliance Consumer’s Global Play
Larsen & Toubro is set to commission an additional 18 MW of data‑center capacity by March‑end, bringing total operational capacity to 32 MW. The Rs 1,000 cr capex reflects the booming demand for hyperscale cloud infrastructure in India, a sector where REIT‑like models are emerging. This expansion could lift L&T’s margin outlook for FY26‑27.
Reliance Consumer Products’ acquisition of a majority stake in Australia’s Goodness Group Global adds a “Better‑For‑You” beverage portfolio to its pipeline. The deal opens a direct channel to the Oceania market, aligning with Reliance’s broader strategy of overseas diversification beyond its core energy business.
Technical Signals: Intraday Swings and What They Mean for Traders
Market breadth on Friday showed a 60:40 long‑short ratio, indicating that despite a flat close, buying pressure persisted in the banking and IT segments. Sharp intraday swings—often exceeding 1.5% in a single session—are being driven by global cues, especially US Treasury yields and China’s manufacturing data. Traders should watch for volume spikes in SBI and BSE, as they frequently precede breakout moves.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull case: SBI’s profit acceleration continues, supported by a stable Nifty above 25,400, and the bank benefits from a “deposit‑rebound” cycle. Coupled with sector tailwinds—renewable financing growth, steel price strength, and data‑center expansion—the broader Indian equity market could see a 5‑7% rally over the next six months.
Bear case: If the Nifty breaks the 25,400 support, risk‑off flows could target high‑valuation banks. Additionally, rising commodity costs prompting price hikes at Tata Motors may compress consumer demand, spilling over to discretionary sectors like Titan and Sun Pharma. A prolonged global risk‑off could see the Nifty stall in a 3‑4% range.
For the prudent investor, a balanced approach—holding SBI and selective exposure to high‑margin exporters like Tata Steel, while keeping a watchlist on L&T and Reliance Consumer—offers upside with manageable downside risk.