Reliance Industries has added over Rs 4.5 lakh crore to its market value this year, but the next big event that could move the stock is the highly‑anticipated Jio IPO, expected in the first half of 2026.
Reliance’s recent performance
Over the past 12 months the RIL share price rose about 27%. The gain came from steady growth in its telecom and retail businesses, a bounce back in refining margins, and the belief that the group is moving from heavy investment to a cash‑generating phase. Quarterly profits are still strong, around Rs 18,000‑20,000 crore, helped by refining, retail and digital services.
Why the Jio IPO matters
Jio has more than 500 million subscribers, nationwide 5G coverage and a growing digital platform that includes broadband, cloud and enterprise services. The IPO could raise roughly $6 billion, depending on the final valuation and the size of the share sale. Analysts estimate Jio could be valued between $120 billion and $150 billion, which would make it one of the five most valuable listed companies in India from day one.
Potential impact on RIL shareholders
When Jio lists, Reliance will become a holding company with a large, separately traded asset. Some investors worry that this could create a “holding‑company discount,” where the parent’s market price is lower than the sum of its parts. Opinions differ:
- Citi says recent SEBI rule changes on public shareholding reduce the risk of a discount.
- BofA Securities cautions that about 30% of Reliance’s total value is tied to Jio, so the discount question remains important.
Regulatory changes ease the IPO size
New SEBI rules require companies worth more than Rs 5 lakh crore to dilute only 2.5% of shares at listing, with flexible timelines to meet public‑shareholding norms. This lets Reliance keep the IPO size manageable—potentially around Rs 30,000 crore—while avoiding a large supply of shares that could pressure the stock.
Beyond the IPO: other growth drivers
Even if the Jio listing is a major headline, Reliance’s outlook does not rely on a single event. Retail continues to add stores and improve margins, the refining business benefits from global demand staying above new capacity, and the company is investing in green hydrogen and renewable energy for long‑term growth.
What shareholders should expect
The Jio IPO is likely to be a sentiment driver, but gains may come gradually rather than instantly. Continued earnings growth and cash‑flow expansion across telecom, retail and refining will be the real source of value for RIL investors after the listing.
Remember, this is perspective, not a prediction. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.