- Ola Electric’s revenue is projected to tumble 54% YoY, yet EBITDA loss shrinks by more than half.
- Inox Wind is set to double revenue YoY and lift EBITDA margins above 18%.
- Both results sit within a broader earnings wave of 669 Indian firms, signaling sector rotation opportunities.
- Technical metrics reveal divergent trajectories: EV maker faces negative operating leverage, renewable player enjoys scale‑up gains.
- Strategic positioning: consider hedging EV exposure while allocating to high‑margin wind assets.
You missed the warning signs in Q3 – and your portfolio may be paying for it.
The corporate earnings calendar on Friday, February 13, lights up with 669 listed firms reporting Q3 FY26 results. Among the marquee names, Ola Electric Mobility and Inox Wind stand out as polar opposites – one battling a steep revenue dip, the other riding a surge that could rewrite the renewable‑energy narrative in India. This post unpacks the numbers, places them in sector context, and hands you a tactical playbook.
Why Ola Electric’s Revenue Collapse Is a Red Flag for EV Playbooks
Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities estimate Ola Electric’s Q3 revenue will fall to ₹480 crore, a 54% YoY decline. The drop stems primarily from a 58% slump in unit volumes, partially offset by a 4% rise in average selling price (ASP). The ASP lift reflects higher PLI (Production‑Linked Incentive) accruals and a shift toward higher‑margin motorcycles.
Despite the top‑line shock, the firm’s EBITDA loss is expected to narrow dramatically to ₹202 crore from ₹460 crore a year ago – a 56% improvement. Net loss should ease to ₹422 crore from ₹564 crore, driven by lower provisions and tighter cost controls. However, the improvement is fragile: negative operating leverage persists because fixed costs remain high relative to the reduced volume base.
Key technical definition: Operating leverage measures how profit changes with revenue; negative leverage means costs don’t fall proportionally with sales, squeezing margins.
Historically, Indian EV startups have struggled to achieve economies of scale. In 2022, a comparable EV maker saw revenues dip 42% YoY while EBITDA turned more negative, eventually prompting a strategic pivot toward component licensing. If Ola cannot accelerate volume recovery, the current loss‑mitigation may be short‑lived.
What Inox Wind’s 102% Revenue Surge Means for Renewable Energy Bets
Motilal Oswal’s forecast for Inox Wind is dramatically different. The company is projected to post ₹1,200 crore in revenue, a 102% YoY jump, fueled by the execution of 300 MW wind contracts and expanded O&M (Operations & Maintenance) capacity. EBITDA is slated to climb 62% YoY to roughly ₹330 crore, delivering an 18% margin – a marked improvement over the 12% margin recorded a year earlier.
The wind sector benefits from strong policy tailwinds: the Indian government’s target of 60 GW of wind capacity by 2030, combined with aggressive auction pricing, is creating a pipeline of high‑margin projects. Inox’s ability to convert contracted capacity into cash flow underscores operational efficiency that many peers, such as Suzlon and Vestas, are still chasing.
Technical note: EBITDA margin = EBITDA ÷ Revenue. An 18% margin indicates that for every ₹100 earned, ₹18 remains before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization – a solid indicator of core profitability.
In the past, wind OEMs that successfully scaled O&M services outperformed peers during market downturns. In 2020, a leading wind turbine manufacturer doubled its O&M revenue, cushioning a 30% dip in new equipment sales and preserving cash flow.
Sector‑wide Implications: How Q3 FY26 Shapes Indian Industrial Outlook
The divergent outcomes of Ola Electric and Inox Wind reflect broader sector dynamics. EV manufacturing remains capital‑intensive and demand‑sensitive, while renewable infrastructure enjoys policy‑driven demand and relatively stable cash‑flow models.
Other listed firms in the earnings wave – such as Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Fortis Healthcare, and Indigo Paints – are also reporting mixed results, but the common thread is a tightening of cost structures across the board. Companies with diversified revenue streams (e.g., multi‑segment conglomerates like Tata) tend to smooth earnings volatility, whereas pure‑play specialists are more exposed to cyclical swings.
Investors should monitor the following macro indicators:
- Electric‑vehicle subsidy revisions in the Union Budget.
- Renewable energy auction outcomes and tariff trends.
- Credit conditions for high‑capex manufacturers.
These factors will dictate whether the current earnings split widens or converges in the next quarter.
Technical Snapshot: Decoding EBITDA Losses and Margins
Both companies illustrate how EBITDA metrics can mask underlying health. Ola’s shrinking loss suggests effective expense management, yet its negative operating leverage indicates that any further revenue dip will erode profitability faster. In contrast, Inox’s expanding margin signals genuine operational leverage – fixed costs are being spread over a larger revenue base, creating a virtuous cycle.
Investors can use the following quick‑check formulas:
- EBITDA Growth Rate = (Current EBITDA – Prior EBITDA) ÷ Prior EBITDA.
- Revenue‑to‑EBITDA Ratio = Revenue ÷ EBITDA – a lower ratio often points to higher profitability.
Applying these to the Q3 forecasts, Ola’s EBITDA growth is +56% (loss narrowing), while Inox’s is +62% (profit expansion). Revenue‑to‑EBITDA moves from ~2.9x (Ola) to ~3.6x (Inox), reinforcing the contrast.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case – Inox Wind: Continued policy support, expanding O&M contracts, and a growing pipeline of wind farms could push margins above 20% by FY27. Positioning: Consider a core allocation (5‑10% of Indian equities) via Inox Wind or a wind‑focused ETF.
Bear Case – Inox Wind: Execution risk on large contracts or a slowdown in renewable auctions could compress margins. Hedge: Use put options or maintain cash for opportunistic entries.
Bull Case – Ola Electric: If volume recovery accelerates (e.g., new model launches, improved supply chain), the company could leverage higher ASPs to swing back to profitability. Positioning: Small‑cap growth exposure (2‑4% of portfolio) with strict stop‑loss.
Bear Case – Ola Electric: Persistent volume decline and high fixed costs could deepen losses, forcing dilution or strategic sale. Hedge: Limit exposure, monitor cash burn, and watch for covenant breaches.
Bottom line: The Q3 earnings marathon is a litmus test for two very different business models. Align your exposure to your risk tolerance – double‑down on the wind upside, but keep a disciplined guardrail around the EV downside.