- Mahindra projects 30% top‑line growth, driven by SUVs, LCVs and tractors.
- HUL expects modest 3.4% revenue lift despite GST transition.
- Titan’s jewelry sales could surge >30% on festive gold demand.
- ONGC faces a double‑whammy of flat volumes and sub‑$60 oil prices.
- Sector‑wide earnings calendar packs 1,600 Indian firms in a single week.
You missed the last earnings wave, and now the next one could rewrite your portfolio.
As the Indian market steps into the fifth week of the FY26 Q3 earnings season, a clutch of heavyweight names are slated to release numbers that could spark sector‑wide re‑ratings. From Mahindra’s aggressive SUV rollout to HUL’s GST‑adjusted growth, each result carries a ripple effect across peers, supply chains, and ultimately, your exposure to India’s growth story.
Mahindra & Mahindra Q3 Outlook: Revenue Surge and Margin Upside
Brokerage house Kotak Institutional Equities forecasts a 30% year‑on‑year revenue jump for Mahindra in 3QFY26. The surge is anchored by a 32% rise in automotive segment sales, propelled by strong demand for light‑commercial‑vehicles (LCV) and sport‑utility‑vehicles (SUV). The tractor division is also slated for a 25% YoY lift, thanks to a 23% volume increase and a modest 2% price‑per‑unit (ASP) boost from a richer product mix.
Margin dynamics are equally compelling. The firm projects a 40‑basis‑point improvement in EBITDA margin, driven by operating leverage and higher‑margin tractors. Specifically, automotive EBIT margin is expected to settle at 9.4% (down from 9.7% a year ago) while the tractor EBIT margin should climb 200 basis points to 20.3%.
Sector context: Mahindra’s growth mirrors a broader pickup in India’s commercial vehicle market, which has been outpacing the global average due to infrastructure spending and a shift toward last‑mile logistics. Competitors like Tata Motors are also seeing a pickup, but Mahindra’s diversified portfolio—spanning passenger, commercial, and agricultural vehicles—offers a defensive buffer against a slowdown in any single segment.
Historical note: In FY22, Mahindra posted a similar revenue acceleration after rolling out its new XUV series, only to see the stock rally 12% over the following quarter. Investors who bought before the earnings beat captured the upside.
Hindustan Unilever's Q3 Forecast: GST Ripple and Growth Drivers
HUL analysts anticipate a 3.4% YoY like‑for‑like (LFL) revenue growth for the quarter, with a 2% growth in the “UVG” (unified volume growth) metric after excluding ice‑cream sales. The home‑care segment is projected to expand 1.5% YoY, while the beauty‑personal‑care (BPC) line should grow 3.8% on the back of strong skin‑care demand.
The transitory impact of GST rate rationalisation is expected to weigh on the first half of the quarter, but pricing strength in beverages—driven by a 6% YoY rise—should offset some of the headwinds.
Industry angle: The FMCG sector in India is currently navigating a pricing‑volume trade‑off as input costs rise. Peers such as ITC and Marico are also reporting similar modest top‑line lifts, making HUL’s relative performance a key barometer for the broader consumer space.
Technical note: LFL (like‑for‑like) growth strips out currency and acquisition effects, providing a clearer view of organic performance—a metric often watched by value‑oriented funds.
Titan Company's Q3 Momentum: Gold Prices and Festive Demand
Kotak models a 34% YoY jump in domestic jewelry sales for Titan, fueled by a 27% LFL increase. The surge is underpinned by three catalysts: a robust festive season, continued wedding‑season buying, and an inflationary gold price environment that saw an average 65% YoY rise in INR terms.
While the studded jewelry mix (excluding CaratLane) may contract 200 basis points YoY, the segment still expects 22% growth, outpacing the 16% rise seen in 2QFY26. Gold coin sales could explode 90% YoY, and the watches division is projected to climb 17%.
Peer comparison: Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail and PC Jeweller are also reporting double‑digit growth, but Titan’s premium positioning and diversified product set (jewelry, watches, eyewear) give it a higher margin cushion.
Historical lens: In FY23, Titan’s earnings beat after a similar festive‑season rally, propelling the stock up 8% in the subsequent week.
ONGC Q3 Outlook: Oil Price Pressure and Volume Risks
Motilal Oswal expects ONGC’s oil, gas, and VAP volumes to be flat YoY, with a key risk being the delayed peak oil production from the KG Basin. Additionally, global oil prices have slipped below $60 per barrel, eroding revenue per barrel.
Kotak Institutional Equities projects a 10% YoY decline in EBITDA, despite a modest 3.3% rise in oil sales volume, due to weaker crude realizations and a stronger rupee.
Sector backdrop: The Indian upstream segment is battling a dual challenge—price volatility and capital‑intensive production ramps. Peers such as Oil India and Cairn Oil are seeing similar margin compressions, which could trigger a sector‑wide re‑rating for energy stocks.
Definition: EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) is a proxy for operating cash flow, often used to gauge a company’s ability to service debt.
Earnings Calendar: Who’s Next and Why It Matters for Your Portfolio
Beyond the marquee names, the upcoming week will see results from 1,600 firms, including BSE, Ashok Leyland, Lenskart Solutions, and Torrent Pharma. The breadth of the calendar means market breadth could shift dramatically based on a handful of surprise beats or misses.
Investors should watch for cross‑sector catalysts: a strong tech earnings beat could lift the Nifty IT index, while a soft pharma result may weigh on health‑care exposure.
Investor Playbook: Bull and Bear Cases
Bull Case: Mahindra’s diversified growth, HUL’s resilient pricing, Titan’s gold‑driven surge, and a potential rebound in oil prices could collectively lift the Sensex 2‑3% over the next month.
Bear Case: If GST adjustments dampen HUL’s margins, ONGC’s earnings miss deepens, and global oil prices stay sub‑$60, the market could see a 1‑1.5% pull‑back, with energy and consumer stocks leading the decline.
Actionable tip: Consider overweighting Mahindra and Titan for upside exposure, while trimming exposure to pure‑play energy stocks like ONGC until price stability returns.