- You have a narrow window before the trading blackout lifts – act now.
- NSDL’s Q3 results could confirm a 12% revenue growth trend or expose margin pressure.
- Sector peers like CDSL are watching closely; any surprise may ripple through the whole market.
- Historical patterns suggest depository earnings spikes precede broader market rotations.
- Understanding unaudited versus audited figures can protect you from upside‑down surprises.
You missed the warning signs in NSDL’s latest filing, and your portfolio may be paying the price.
National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) has set the date for its Q3 board meeting – Wednesday, 28 January 2026 – and with it, the moment when the unaudited standalone and consolidated results for the October‑December quarter will be released. The trading window for insiders is closed until 48 hours after the announcement, meaning the market will digest the numbers in a clean, uninfluenced environment. For an investor, this is a rare, high‑signal event that can reshape expectations for the entire Indian depository ecosystem.
NSDL Q3 Results Timeline and Immediate Market Reaction
The filing disclosed that the board will consider and approve the unaudited results on 28 January. The share price closed 1.38% lower at ₹1,000.15 on the day of the announcement, after a steep 6.11% slide over the past month. Since its August 2025 IPO, NSDL has shed 23% of its value, hovering near its 52‑week low of ₹880. The upcoming results will either halt this decline or accelerate it, making the timing crucial for any position.
Sector Trends: Why Indian Depositories Are in the Spotlight
Depository services form the backbone of India’s booming equity market, handling the registration, settlement, and custodial functions for more than 55 million demat accounts. Revenue growth in this niche has been driven by two forces:
- Rising retail participation, especially after the 2023‑24 market‑wide surge.
- Increased demand for custodial solutions from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) seeking transparent, low‑cost settlement.
NSDL’s Q2 numbers already showed a 12% rise in core revenue to ₹400.04 crore, with depository services alone up 20% YoY. If the Q3 results maintain or accelerate this trajectory, they could reinforce a broader industry trend of double‑digit growth, inviting fresh capital into the sector.
Competitive Landscape: CDSL vs. NSDL – Who’s Gaining Ground?
National Securities Depository Ltd isn’t alone. Central Depository Services (CDSL) commands roughly 35% of the market share, while NSDL holds about 65%. CDSL’s latest quarterly report (released 15 January 2026) showed a 9% revenue increase, but its net profit margin slipped to 17% from 19% a year ago, hinting at cost pressures.
Analysts watch the relative performance of these two giants to gauge pricing power. If NSDL posts a margin expansion while CDSL’s margins compress, investors may re‑price the sector in favour of NSDL, potentially narrowing the discount to its 52‑week high of ₹1,425. Conversely, a weak NSDL report could accelerate a shift of market share toward CDSL.
Historical Parallel: The 2020 Depository Earnings Surge
Back in fiscal 2020‑21, both NSDL and CDSL reported double‑digit profit jumps after the pandemic‑driven retail rally. The subsequent year saw a correction, as higher operating costs ate into margins, and the stock price of both depositories fell roughly 15% from their peaks.
The lesson? Earnings spikes can be fleeting if not backed by sustainable fee‑based revenue. Investors who entered on the hype of 2020 missed the later pull‑back. This time, the key differentiator is the mix of depository‑service fees versus ancillary banking services, which now contribute 44% of NSDL’s core revenue.
Technical Definitions: Unaudited vs. Audited Results, Trading Blackout, and Core Revenue
Unaudited results are preliminary numbers prepared by management before an independent audit. They give an early view of performance but may be adjusted later.
Trading blackout refers to the period during which insiders are prohibited from buying or selling shares, intended to prevent insider trading around material announcements.
Core revenue for a depository includes fees from demat account maintenance, transaction settlement, and ancillary banking services. It excludes one‑off gains or non‑recurring items.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios
Bull Case
- Q3 revenue growth exceeds 12%, driven by a 22% jump in depository‑service fees.
- Net profit margin expands to >15%, indicating cost‑discipline.
- Market reacts positively, pushing the share price above ₹1,100 within two weeks.
- Potential catalyst: Announcement of a new digital settlement platform attracting additional FIIs.
Bear Case
- Revenue growth stalls below 5% as fee compression intensifies.
- Operating expenses rise, squeezing margins below 13%.
- Share price slides back toward the ₹880 low, triggering stop‑losses.
- Risk factor: Regulatory changes that cap depository fee structures.
Given the tight trading window and the market’s appetite for clear earnings signals, the upcoming NSDL filing is a decisive moment. Whether you decide to add, hold, or trim exposure should hinge on how the numbers stack up against the sector’s growth narrative and the competitive dynamics with CDSL.