You missed the Nifty’s last surge – and that could cost you.
- Weekly Nifty up 1.5% to 25,693 – strongest in three months.
- Resistance cluster at 25,900‑26,400 may decide next leg.
- Bank Nifty holding above 59,000; 62,000 breakout needed for fresh upside.
- Top short‑term buys: Gujarat Gas, IFCI, Godrej Properties – clear entry, stop‑loss, target.
- Sector ripple: FMCG, Realty, Metals outpace IT slump from AI‑driven sell‑offs.
Why Nifty's Near‑25,900 Resistance Matters
The benchmark Nifty 50 closed the week at 25,693.70, carving out a 1.5% gain despite intermittent profit‑booking in IT stocks. Technical analysis shows the index rebounded from a sturdy 24,500 base but now wrestles with a dense resistance zone between 25,900 and 26,400. A clean break above 26,400 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could push the next target to the 27,200‑27,500 range.
Conversely, a failure to clear 25,900 may usher in a consolidation pattern, with 25,450 acting as a pivotal pivot. Should the market slip below this level, the next corrective target would likely settle near 25,100, supported by a broader demand band spanning 24,800‑24,500. This dual‑range scenario is classic for the Indian equity market after a short‑term rally.
Bank Nifty's Fragile Support at 59,000
Bank Nifty mirrors the broader index’s indecision. The 59,000 level—aligned with a recent gap‑fill area—offers short‑term demand. As long as that zone holds, the index’s structural integrity remains intact, though traders should stay selective. A decisive breach above 62,000 would be required to reignite bullish momentum; otherwise, the index is likely to hover in a neutral‑to‑positive bias.
Gujarat Gas: Technical Breakout Worth a Quick Trade
Gujarat Gas (previous close ₹425.45) has cleared the William Alligator indicator, with Jaw, Teeth and Lips running parallel—a textbook sign of a new uptrend emerging from consolidation. The MACD line has crossed above zero, confirming accelerating momentum, while the DMI has turned positive, indicating strengthening directional bias.
Entry range: ₹426‑₹420
Target: ₹465
Stop‑loss: ₹400
At current valuations, the risk‑reward ratio sits comfortably above 1:2, making it a compelling short‑term play for traders with a 1‑2 week horizon.
IFCI: Momentum Signals a Near‑Term Upside
IFCI (previous close ₹60.18) echoes the same bullish confluence seen in Gujarat Gas. The stock sits above the Alligator’s three lines, MACD has turned positive, and DMI shows increasing buying pressure. These three indicators aligning suggests a sustainable trend rather than a fleeting spike.
Entry range: ₹61‑₹59
Target: ₹70
Stop‑loss: ₹55
Given the current price level, the upside potential exceeds 15% with limited downside, fitting well into a rapid‑turnover strategy.
Godrej Properties: Oversold Signal Could Trigger Relief Rally
Godrej Properties (previous close ₹1,699.80) suffered a sharp correction from ₹2,166 to a low near ₹1,475, pushing the MACD deep into oversold territory. Historically, a bullish MACD crossover from such extreme levels has preceded meaningful price recoveries—most recently in early 2025 and early February 2026.
Entry range: ₹1,700‑₹1,600 (staggered accumulation)
Target: ₹1,950
Stop‑loss: ₹1,500 (closing basis)
The setup offers a risk‑reward profile near 1:2, especially attractive for investors looking to capture the next relief rally in the realty sector.
Sector Ripple: FMCG, Realty, Metals Outpace IT Weakness
While global AI concerns have pressured Indian IT stocks, domestic‑focused sectors have led the weekly rally. FMCG giants benefit from steady consumption, realty firms like Godrej Properties gain from the budget‑driven infrastructure push, and metals have been buoyed by expectations of higher commodity prices under the new India‑US trade deal. This sectoral divergence underscores the importance of focusing on domestically anchored businesses during periods of tech‑related volatility.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios
Bull case: Nifty breaks above 26,400, Bank Nifty clears 62,000, and the three stock picks hit their targets within two weeks. Portfolio could see a 7‑10% uplift, driven by both index momentum and individual stock rallies.
Bear case: Nifty retests 25,450, Bank Nifty falls beneath 59,000, and at least one of the highlighted stocks reverses sharply, triggering stop‑losses. In this scenario, a 3‑5% drawdown is plausible, emphasizing the need for tight risk management.
Bottom line: Monitor the 25,900‑26,400 resistance for Nifty, the 62,000 level for Bank Nifty, and keep the stop‑losses of the three short‑term picks disciplined. The market’s next move will likely hinge on whether these technical thresholds hold or break.