- Nifty’s 0.3% weekly gain masks a potential base formation at 25,350‑25,900.
- Bank Nifty is consolidating near 59,900, setting up a decisive test of the 61,500‑62,000 resistance.
- Financials, energy, power, and pharma led the rally – sectors still primed for upside.
- Three sub‑₹50 stocks (Motherson Sumi Wiring, IRB Infrastructure, ITBEES) offer high‑reward intraday setups.
- Bull and bear scenarios are outlined with clear entry, target, and stop‑loss levels.
You missed the early rally; now the real opportunity is unfolding.
Related Reads: Indian Stocks Slip Again: Top 3 Picks to Buy or Sell for Retail Investors | Market Insights: Stocks to Buy and Sell in a Volatile Market
Why Nifty’s 25,350–25,900 Support Zone Is the Market’s New Pivot Point
The Sensex and Nifty closed the week with a modest 0.2‑0.4% gain, but the real story lies in the price action around the 25,350‑25,900 corridor. Technical analyst Mehul Kothari flags this range as the "next directional move" driver. A support breach below 25,350 would expose the index to deeper corrections, while a clean hold and bounce could confirm a maturing base – the classic pre‑breakout pattern seen in 2022 when Nifty rallied 12% after stabilising at a similar level.
From a fundamentals perspective, the range coincides with a dip in corporate earnings expectations and a pause in foreign institutional inflows. When price respects a technical floor amid such macro headwinds, it often signals that value‑seeking investors are stepping in, setting the stage for a risk‑on shift once confidence returns.
Bank Nifty’s Consolidation Around 59,900: What It Means for Financial Stocks
Bank Nifty has been trapped in a wide 58,500‑62,000 band, with the latest base forming near 59,900. The 61,500‑62,000 zone serves as a long‑term trendline resistance. Historically, a sustained breakout above 62,000 has preceded a 7‑10% rally in major banks like HDFC and ICICI, driven by improving credit growth and lower NPA ratios.
For now, the index is waiting for a catalyst – either a dovish RBI policy signal or a reduction in global rate‑hike fears. Traders should watch the 59,900 support; a clean hold could encourage buying in PSU banks that led Friday’s modest recovery.
Sector Pulse: Financials, Energy, Power, and Pharma Leading the Week’s Rally
The early‑week surge was powered by buying in financials, energy, power, and pharma stocks. These sectors benefited from stable global cues and a modest easing in commodity price volatility. Energy players are still priced below 2024 peaks, offering a re‑entry point as OPEC+ hints at supply restraint. Power stocks are riding the tailwinds of increased renewable capacity additions, while pharma remains resilient amid steady domestic demand and export opportunities.
In contrast, consumer discretionary and IT lagged, reflecting cautious corporate spending amid geopolitical uncertainties. The sector rotation suggests that investors are preferring defensive and semi‑cyclical names while the broader market digests global risk factors.
Undervalued Gems Under ₹50: Motherson Sumi Wiring, IRB Infrastructure, ITBEES
Mehul Kothari highlighted three sub‑₹50 opportunities that combine technical momentum with solid fundamentals:
- Motherson Sumi Wiring India – Current price ₹42; target ₹52; stop‑loss ₹37. The wiring segment benefits from the EV rollout and government push for electric mobility, driving a 15% YoY revenue growth outlook.
- IRB Infrastructure – Current price ₹40; target ₹43; stop‑loss ₹38. IRB’s road‑building pipeline is expanding under the National Infrastructure Pipeline, with a projected 12% increase in order book value.
- ITBEES (IT Index ETF) – Current price ₹35; target ₹39; stop‑loss ₹33. The ETF offers exposure to top‑tier IT stocks at a discount, providing a low‑cost play on the sector’s long‑term earnings growth.
Each recommendation follows a classic risk‑reward framework: entry near support, a modest 10‑15% upside target, and a tight stop to limit downside. The price points align with recent low‑volume pullbacks, creating a favourable risk‑adjusted entry.
Technical Toolbox: Decoding Corrections, Base Formation, and Trendline Breakouts
Correction – A short‑term price pullback of 5‑10% from recent highs, often healthy in a bull market. The Thursday dip of ~1.5% fits this definition, suggesting the market is shaking out weak hands.
Base formation – A period where price consolidates within a defined range, building buying pressure. Nifty’s 25,350‑25,900 range is a textbook base, similar to the 2021 base that preceded a 9% rally.
Trendline breakout – When price moves decisively above a drawn resistance line, confirming bullish momentum. For Bank Nifty, a break above the 61,500‑62,000 trendline would be the green light for a higher‑high swing.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Scenarios for Nifty and Selected Picks
Bull Case: Nifty holds above 25,350, tests 26,000, and breaches it with volume. Bank Nifty follows suit, breaking 62,000. In this environment, the three sub‑₹50 stocks could see 15‑20% upside as risk appetite improves. Investors should add to positions on pullbacks to the identified stop‑loss levels.
Bear Case: A slip below 25,350 triggers a broader sell‑off, dragging financials and power stocks. The sub‑₹50 picks could see 8‑10% downside, especially if global risk aversion spikes. Defensive positioning in gold or high‑quality bonds would be prudent, and any new entries should wait for a clear reversal candle above the support zone.
Regardless of the scenario, maintaining a disciplined stop‑loss and monitoring the 25,350‑25,900 and 59,900‑62,000 zones will be key to preserving capital and capturing upside.