Morgan Stanley has started covering Meesho, the fast‑growing value‑e‑commerce platform, with an equal‑weight rating and a target price of Rs 169 per share. The target implies about a 3% upside from today’s price.
Rating and Target Price
The brokerage says Meesho’s valuation looks full because its advertising business is still in the early stages of making money. While the company is focused on adding more users, steady profitability is expected a few years away.
How Morgan Stanley Values Meesho
Analysts think investors will value Meesho either by applying a discount to the FY31 adjusted EBITDA margin or by using an enterprise‑value (EV) to net merchandise value (NMV) multiple based on FY28 estimates. At present, Meesho trades at about 1.14× FY28 EV/NMV, which the brokerage deems fair. The Rs 169 target reflects a modest 1.2× FY28 EV/NMV multiple, slightly lower than Blinkit’s estimated 1.4×.
Key Business Highlights
- Founded in 2015, Meesho serves roughly 234 million transacting users and over 700,000 sellers (as of Sep 2025).
- Average order value is around US$3, with about 153.7 million daily active listings.
- Nearly 75% of orders are generated through personalized product feeds or platform recommendations.
- The marketplace model is asset‑light, helping keep capital costs low.
Growth Forecast and Profit Timeline
Morgan Stanley expects Meesho’s net merchandise value to grow at a 26% compound annual growth rate from FY26 to FY28. Adjusted EBITDA margins are projected to move from –3.2% in FY26 to +0.5% by FY28, reaching an estimated steady‑state margin of about 3.8% of NMV by FY31.
Bull Case: Upside Potential
If Meesho’s advertising revenue ramps up faster than expected without hurting user growth, the brokerage believes the stock could re‑rate to over 40× FY31 estimated EV/EBITDA, similar to Blinkit. Discounted at the firm’s weighted‑average cost of capital, this would imply a forward price of roughly Rs 239, or about a 45% upside from current levels.
Risks to Watch
- Adjusted EBITDA losses may widen in the second half of FY26.
- Slower‑than‑expected monetisation of advertising could delay breakeven.
Recent Stock Performance
Since its IPO on Dec 10, Meesho’s shares have risen about 46% from the issue price of Rs 111, but they are down roughly 36% from the post‑listing peak of Rs 254. In 2026, the stock is off about 8% so far.
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects our view of the information available and is not a prediction. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.