Key Takeaways
- You’re seeing a 2% price bump, but earnings growth tells a deeper story.
- Quarterly profit more than doubled YoY, yet annual net profit fell sharply.
- Revenue is on a 40%+ CAGR since 2021, outpacing most mid‑caps.
- Dividend payout remains steady at 60% of earnings, but EPS volatility raises valuation questions.
- Sector peers like Domino’s India and McDonald’s India are expanding at slower rates, offering a comparative lens.
The Hook
You missed the last profit jump—here’s why it matters now.
Why Jubilant Foodworks' Quarterly Profit Surge Beats Expectations
For the quarter ending September 2025, Jubilant Foodworks reported a net profit of ₹192.23 crore, up 111% from the ₹91.14 crore posted in June. The earnings per share (EPS) climbed to ₹1.61 from ₹1.43, reflecting both top‑line strength and operational leverage. The revenue base reached ₹2,340.15 crore, a 3.5% quarter‑on‑quarter increase, driven by higher same‑store sales in its Domino’s and Dunkin’ brands and the rollout of new outlet formats in Tier‑2 cities.
Technical note: Same‑store sales (SSS) measure revenue growth from stores that have been open for at least a year, stripping out the noise of new openings.
How the Annual Revenue Upswing Shapes the Mid‑Cap Landscape
Jubilant’s FY2025 revenue of ₹8,141.73 crore represents a 44% jump from FY2024’s ₹5,654.09 crore. That growth dwarfs the average 12‑15% revenue expansion seen in the Indian quick‑service restaurant (QSR) segment over the same period. The company’s aggressive footprint strategy—adding over 1,000 new outlets and pushing digital ordering—has been the primary catalyst.
When you compare this to peers:
- Domino’s India logged a 20% FY revenue rise, constrained by higher franchisee saturation in metros.
- McDonald’s India grew 13% YoY, hampered by supply‑chain bottlenecks.
- Starbucks India, still a niche player, posted a modest 7% increase.
Thus, Jubilant’s top‑line outperformance is a strong moat in a crowded QSR market, especially as consumer spending shifts toward value‑oriented offerings.
Why the Drop in Annual Net Profit Raises a Red Flag
Despite the revenue boom, FY2025 net profit fell to ₹236.63 crore from ₹384.84 crore in FY2024—a 38% decline. The EPS mirrored this, sliding from ₹6.05 to ₹3.19. The primary drivers were:
- Higher commodity costs (cheese, wheat) due to global supply shocks, inflating the cost‑of‑goods‑sold (COGS) margin.
- Increased advertising spend to support the aggressive outlet rollout.
- One‑time restructuring charges linked to the integration of new franchise agreements.
These headwinds illustrate that revenue growth alone does not guarantee bottom‑line stability, a crucial lesson for any mid‑cap investor.
Historical Context: Is This a Repeat of the 2022‑2023 Cycle?
Jubilant experienced a similar pattern in FY2022–FY2023: revenue rose sharply (from ₹4.39 crore to ₹5.16 crore), yet profit margins compressed due to a surge in raw material prices and a strategic push into newer formats. The market punished the stock with a 12% correction before the company re‑engineered its supply chain, leading to a rebound in FY2024.
History suggests that if the company can navigate cost inflation, profit recovery often follows within 12‑18 months. However, the timing and magnitude are not guaranteed.
Sector Trends: Digital Ordering, Ghost Kitchens, and ESG Pressures
Three macro trends are reshaping the QSR space:
- Digital acceleration: Online orders now account for >45% of total sales for leading QSRs. Jubilant’s proprietary app and partnerships with aggregators have boosted same‑day delivery efficiency.
- Ghost‑kitchen proliferation: Low‑capex delivery‑only concepts are eroding foot‑traffic revenue for traditional outlets. Jubilant’s recent pilot of a cloud‑kitchen network could offset this risk if scaled.
- ESG scrutiny: Investors are increasingly demanding sustainable packaging and reduced food waste. Jubilant announced a 2026 target to cut single‑use plastic by 30%—a potential differentiator for ESG‑focused funds.
Competitor Playbook: How Tata Consumer and Adani’s Food Ventures React
Tata Consumer, though not a direct QSR player, is expanding its snack portfolio, indirectly competing for the same discretionary spend. Its recent acquisition of a regional bakery chain signals a push into the “snack‑first” category, which could pressure Jubilant’s share of the quick‑bite market.
Adani’s new food‑service arm, launched in 2025, focuses on hyper‑local supply chains, aiming to undercut commodity cost inflation—a direct challenge to Jubilant’s margin outlook.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case: Continued top‑line expansion, successful cost‑containment via supply‑chain optimization, and steady 60% dividend payout make Jubilant an attractive yield‑plus‑growth play in the mid‑cap space. The stock could appreciate 20‑30% over the next 12 months if profit margins rebound.
Bear Case: Persistent input‑cost volatility, aggressive capex draining free cash flow, and EPS volatility could depress valuations. A further 15% price correction is possible if margins stay compressed.
Strategic positioning: Consider a phased entry—initially a modest allocation (5‑7% of a mid‑cap core) with a stop‑loss at 10% below the current level. Monitor upcoming Q3FY26 earnings for margin trends and any updates on the cloud‑kitchen rollout.
Bottom Line for Your Portfolio
If you value a blend of revenue growth, dividend income, and the potential upside of a recovering profit margin, Jubilant Foodworks remains a compelling candidate. However, stay vigilant about cost pressures and the broader ESG narrative that could sway institutional sentiment.