ITC’s share price has slipped this year, but many analysts see a clear support level that could make it an attractive option for long‑term, value‑focused investors.
Why ITC Stock Is Under Pressure
The stock has been pulled down by several factors:
- British American Tobacco sold its stake in ITC, reducing confidence.
- A 40% GST rate on tobacco and other “sin” goods raises costs.
- Broad corrections in the FMCG sector have weighed on sentiment.
- Uncertainty around the upcoming demerger of ITC Hotels adds caution.
Overall, the share price is about 12% lower this year, while the benchmark Sensex has risen around 8%.
Fundamental Perspective
Analysts point to several strengths that could support a rebound:
- Stable cash flow from cigarettes – premium products and resilient demand keep earnings steady.
- Paperboards and packaging benefit from government price caps and anti‑dumping measures.
- Budget 2026 expectations – lower income‑tax rates, higher government spending and GST cuts on many FMCG items may boost affordability and demand.
- Strong balance sheet – low debt and solid liquidity make the company well‑positioned for long‑term growth.
Both analysts we consulted have a “buy” rating, citing the company’s diversified earnings and steady cash generation as reasons for patient investors to consider a position.
Technical Outlook
Short‑term price action suggests the stock is moving within a range:
- Key support around ₹398 – buyers have repeatedly stepped in at this level.
- Immediate resistance near ₹412–₹418 – a clear break above could trigger fresh buying.
- Major hurdle at ₹425 – sustained closing above this point would signal a stronger trend.
On a longer horizon, the stock remains in an overall uptrend:
- Support around ₹370 holds the broader bullish structure.
- Next resistance zones are ₹440–₹460 and the all‑time‑high band of ₹490–₹500.
- A decisive close above ₹500 could open the path toward ₹600+ in the medium‑to‑long term.
Bottom Line for Investors
While global market uncertainty still lingers, the combination of a solid business model, supportive fiscal policies, and clear technical support makes ITC a candidate for value‑oriented investors who can tolerate short‑term volatility.
Remember, this is my perspective, not a prediction. Do your own research and consider speaking with a certified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.