India's retail market is expected to grow from 83 trillion Indian rupees in 2025 to 123-135 trillion rupees by 2030. This growth represents an increase of 8-10% per year, which is a significant opportunity for companies in the retail space. Despite this growth, the average Indian still spends much less than their Chinese counterpart, indicating a long period of growth ahead.
The main drivers of this growth are the increasing number of people shopping online and the shift from unorganized retail to organized retail. Organized retail is expected to increase from 21% to around 33% of the market, with e-commerce being a major beneficiary. In fact, e-commerce is expected to grow at a rate of 20-25% per year, with value-led e-commerce models being particularly popular.
Certain categories, such as fashion, home essentials, and grocery, are still largely untapped online. In fact, more than 75% of the supply in these categories is unbranded, making them ripe for disruption by value-led e-commerce models. Meesho is well-placed to take advantage of this trend, thanks to its zero-commission, low-AOV, discovery-led platform.
Meesho is expected to deliver significant revenue growth over the next few years, with a predicted 31% increase per year from 2025 to 2028. The company's logistics integration and content-led demand will enable it to deliver superior unit economics. Additionally, Meesho has a number of opportunities to increase its revenue through advertising, fintech, and fulfillment services.
Overall, Meesho is a compelling investment opportunity, with a predicted 81.7% upside and a BUY rating. The company is well-placed to take advantage of the growing Indian retail market and is expected to deliver significant returns for investors.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. It's always a good idea to consult with a financial expert before making any investment decisions.
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