- IT giants posted surprise earnings, sparking the first multi‑session rally in weeks.
- Bank Nifty cleared the 60,000 mark, signaling strong domestic financial health.
- Put‑Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.75 hints at a bullish tilt despite global tariff chatter.
- Key resistance zones: Nifty 26,300‑26,500; Bank Nifty 60,500‑61,000.
- Buy‑the‑dip targets: Wockhardt, LT, HDFC Bank – with defined risk/reward.
You missed the IT earnings boom? That cost you the early rally.
Why the IT Surge Is Redefining the Indian Stock Market Upside
The latest quarterly results from the country’s IT behemoths—TCS, Infosys, and Wipro—beat consensus forecasts by an average of 7%. Revenue growth was propelled by higher‑margin digital services and a rebounding export bill, even as geopolitical risks linger. This earnings surprise acted as a catalyst, lifting the Nifty 50 by roughly 0.8% and providing a tangible proof point that domestic earnings can offset external headwinds.
Sector trend insight: Over the past six months, IT earnings have moved from a flat trajectory to a positive slope, narrowing the earnings‑growth gap with the global tech average. Investors are re‑weighting portfolios toward high‑margin software services, a shift that could sustain the rally beyond the current correction.
Banking Sector Resilience Amid Global Tariff Turbulence
While the US‑EU tariff debate over secondary duties on Russian and Iranian trade continues, Indian banks have shown a surprising level of immunity. The Bank Nifty closed the week above 60,000, driven by strong loan‑book growth and a modest dip in non‑performing assets. Domestic institutional inflows (DII) contributed net purchases of INR 1.2 billion, cushioning the impact of modest foreign institutional outflows (FII).
Historical parallel: During the 2018 trade‑war spikes, Indian banks also posted relative outperformance, thanks to a robust retail deposit base and limited exposure to the contested commodities.
Technical Landscape: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Levels to Watch
The Put‑Call Ratio (PCR) sits at 0.75, a level traditionally interpreted as bullish—more traders are buying calls than puts. Open interest data shows the highest call concentration between the 26,000‑26,500 strikes for Nifty and between 61,000‑61,500 for Bank Nifty. Conversely, puts cluster around 25,500‑25,700 (Nifty) and 59,500‑60,000 (Bank Nifty), establishing clear support bands.
Definition: Open interest reflects the total number of outstanding derivative contracts; a concentration of calls signals where traders expect price to climb, while a pile‑up of puts marks defensive zones.
Resistance: Nifty 26,300‑26,500; Bank Nifty 60,500‑61,000. Support: Nifty 25,500‑25,700; Bank Nifty 58,500‑59,000. Breaching resistance could trigger a short‑covering rally; sliding below support may invite fresh buying at discount levels.
Sector‑Wide Implications: Export‑Oriented vs Domestic‑Driven Stocks
Export‑reliant segments—especially metals and fertilizers—remain cautious, their earnings still tethered to global demand cycles and tariff risk. In contrast, domestic‑focused consumer services and financials enjoy a tailwind from resilient household consumption and a diversification of trade partners (e.g., increased ASEAN exposure).
Investors should therefore tilt toward companies with >60% revenue from the Indian market, as these are less likely to be shaken by external policy shocks.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs Bear Scenarios
Bull case: If Nifty breaches 26,500 on strong call OI and the PCR remains sub‑1, the market could retest the 27,000‑27,200 zone within the next 4‑6 weeks. In that environment, accumulate IT leaders on dips (e.g., pull‑back to 1,380‑1,400 for Infosys) and add mid‑cap banks near their support (HDFC Bank 930‑950).
Bear case: A sudden escalation in US tariff policy or a sharp FII outflow could push Nifty back below 25,500. In such a scenario, protect downside with stop‑losses near the defined support levels and shift capital to defensive staples like Wockhardt, targeting a 1510 upside from the 1,430‑1,440 entry.
Overall, the market is in a healthy correction phase—risk‑on sentiment is returning, but upside is capped by macro uncertainty. Smart investors will use the defined technical bands to time entries, manage risk, and capitalize on sector momentum.