As the calendar flips to the last trading day of 2025, India’s Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to start the session almost unchanged, with only light buying and selling activity.
Indian market outlook
Early trading signals from the Gift Nifty show a modest rise of about 0.09%, suggesting a flat but slightly positive open. Yesterday’s close was almost flat too—Sensex at 84,675.08 (down 0.02%) and Nifty 50 at 25,938.85 (down 0.01%).
- Volatility remains, but the market ended the monthly expiry day unchanged.
- Strong rupee gives a little comfort, yet foreign investors are still pulling money out.
- Auto stocks rose on strong industrial production data; metal stocks benefited from higher metal prices; PSU banks improved on better asset quality.
Experts expect the market to stay sideways until clearer outcomes from US‑India trade talks and the upcoming Q3 earnings season.
Global market context
Asian markets are mostly closed for New Year’s Eve, but earlier this week they were on track for their strongest annual performance in six years, helped by U.S. rate‑cut hopes and excitement around AI‑related companies. The MSCI All‑Country World Index is up about 21% for the year.
U.S. markets and the dollar
Wall Street saw small drops on the last trading day of the year, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq each slipping around 0.1‑0.2%. Despite the dip, all three indices are still on track for double‑digit gains in 2025, driven largely by tech and AI stocks.
Federal Reserve minutes revealed a split view on whether to cut rates, leaving the policy outlook uncertain. The U.S. dollar edged higher after the minutes, but it is still on track for its biggest yearly decline since 2017, down about 9.5%.
Precious metals
Gold and silver fell a bit on the day, but both have posted massive yearly gains. Spot gold is around $4,334 per ounce, while silver is near $75 per ounce. Silver’s year‑to‑date rise of roughly 157% makes it the best‑performing metal of the year.
Oil prices
Crude oil is heading for its steepest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic, with West Texas Intermediate trading below $58 a barrel—down nearly 20% for the year. The decline is driven by fears of a supply glut and slower global demand.
Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming OPEC meeting, U.S. industry data, and any geopolitical developments that could move oil prices.
Key takeaways for investors
- Expect a quiet, flat start to the final trading day of 2025.
- Global cues are mixed; Asian markets are strong, but U.S. equities show modest declines.
- The dollar’s weakness may support commodity prices, though oil is falling.
- Retail investors should stay cautious and watch for clearer signals from trade talks and earnings reports in early 2026.
Remember, this is perspective, not a prediction. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any decisions.