- Indices jumped >2.5% on the trade pact—breadth was overwhelming.
- Technical breakouts in Coforge, Axis Bank and Hero MotoCorp suggest fresh upside.
- Sector‑wide catalysts: IT services, banking, pharma and chemicals are aligning with global demand.
- Key support‑resistance zones give clear entry‑exit rules for short‑term traders.
- Bear‑ish triggers: failure to hold pivotal levels could flip momentum fast.
You missed the opening bell, but the market’s still shouting: the India‑US trade deal just rewrote the short‑term outlook.
Why the India‑US Trade Deal Rally Is More Than a One‑Day Spike
The bilateral agreement cleared tariff‑related uncertainties for over 150 commodities, instantly lifting sentiment across the NSE. A 2.5% lift in the benchmark indices is rare; what’s rarer is the breadth—2,494 stocks advanced while only 447 fell. Historically, such a breadth ratio (>80% winners) precedes a multi‑week bull run, as seen after the 2015 GST rollout and the 2020 fiscal stimulus.
From a sector perspective, IT services and pharma have the most to gain. U.S. firms now face fewer import duties on software services, bolstering export pipelines for companies like Coforge. In pharma, reduced barriers to U.S. API imports revive contract manufacturing demand, benefitting players like Apollo Hospitals (through its health‑care services arm) and BPCL’s petro‑chemical derivatives.
Coforge: Breakout Blueprint for Momentum Traders
On the daily chart Coforge snapped a tight range and closed above the resistance line at Rs 1,712.1 with volume 1.8× the 20‑day average. The move aligns with a classic breakout pattern—price breaks a horizontal resistance on expanding volume, often followed by a 5‑10% rally.
Key technical markers:
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits at 62, still below the overbought threshold of 70, indicating room to run.
- EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossover: 20‑day EMA crossed above the 50‑day EMA, a bullish signal known as the “golden cross”.
Target: Rs 1,830. Stop‑loss: Rs 1,650 (the prior swing low). If Coforge stays above Rs 1,650, the uptrend could extend to the next resistance at Rs 2,000, echoing its 2022 post‑COVID rebound.
Axis Bank Riding a Rising Channel – What It Means for Your Portfolio
Axis Bank’s weekly chart forms a clean rising channel—higher highs and higher lows—a textbook trend continuation pattern. The Relative Strength Index is climbing toward 68, hinting at sustained buying pressure.
Crucial level: Rs 1,310. Holding this floor keeps the stock in the channel; a break below could flip the pattern into a descending channel, a typical bearish reversal seen in 2018 when the bank fell 12% after losing its support at Rs 1,200.
Target: Rs 1,450. Stop‑loss: Rs 1,310. For investors, the upside dovetails with the broader banking sector’s exposure to increased credit flow from the trade deal, especially in export‑linked loan books.
Apollo Hospitals: Rounding Bottom Signals a New Growth Phase
Apollo Hospitals reversed its downtrend by carving a rounding bottom—a smooth, U‑shaped pattern that often precedes a breakout. The stock now trades above the 50‑period EMA at Rs 7,088.5, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line is turning positive.
Support sits at Rs 6,840; breach of this level could re‑ignite a correction. Conversely, staying above it opens the path to Rs 7,580, aligning with the sector’s recovery in private hospital demand post‑trade‑deal.
BPCL: Ichimoku Cloud Breakout and Fibonacci Pull‑Backs
Bharat Petroleum’s daily chart shows a decisive move above the Ichimoku Cloud, a multi‑component indicator that defines support, resistance, and trend direction. The price also bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its September 2025 rally, a classic sign of a healthy pull‑back before continuation.
Key zones: Rs 375 break triggers a run to the all‑time high of Rs 388.15, then Rs 405. Support at Rs 360 cushions downside risk.
Infobeans Technologies: Accumulation Phase Ready to Burst
Infobeans has been in a 30‑day consolidation range (Rs 729‑939). The recent retest of the 65‑period EMA near Rs 750, coupled with an ADX (Average Directional Index) reading of 33, signals a strengthening trend. ADX above 25 typically confirms a robust trend.
Breakout above Rs 940 could launch the stock toward Rs 975 and then Rs 1,015. Immediate support at Rs 900 offers a safety net.
Hero MotoCorp: Falling Channel Reversal in Play
Hero MotoCorp’s daily chart is nudging the upper bound of a falling channel. A close above Rs 5,850 would validate a short‑term bottom, while the Bollinger Bands’ mid‑line is already breached, indicating expanding volatility.
The MACD crossover below zero adds a double‑confirmation bullish signal. Targets: Rs 6,050 and Rs 6,200. Stop‑loss: Rs 5,650 (mid‑band level).
Navin Fluorine International: Box‑Pattern Breakout with EMA Alignment
The stock smashed out of a long‑standing box pattern, hitting an all‑time high. It now trades above its 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day EMAs, all sloping upward—a rare alignment that underscores a strong uptrend across timeframes.
Minor dips to Rs 6,220 present buying opportunities; the former resistance now acts as support.
Target: Rs 6,420. Stop‑loss: Rs 6,100.
Prime Focus: Flag Pattern Signals Continuation
Prime Focus formed a flag (or box) pattern, then broke out with volume expansion. Like Navin Fluorine, it sits above all major EMAs, confirming a multi‑timeframe uptrend.
Entry near Rs 250, stop‑loss at Rs 242, target Rs 268.
Investor Playbook – Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case: The trade deal sustains higher export volumes, boosting earnings across IT, pharma and chemicals. Technicals suggest that most of the highlighted stocks will respect their support levels and chase the listed targets, potentially adding 5‑15% in the next 4‑6 weeks.
Bear Case: A sudden geopolitical flare‑up or a delayed implementation of the tariff cuts could erode sentiment. If any of the key support zones (e.g., Coforge Rs 1,650, Axis Bank Rs 1,310, Hero MotoCorp Rs 5,650) break, a rapid correction could follow, wiping out 3‑7% of gains.
Risk‑management tip: Use stop‑losses at the nearest structural support and size positions to no more than 2% of portfolio equity per trade. Diversify across sectors to mitigate sector‑specific fallout.
Stay alert to the next wave of data—U.S. import figures and Indian export numbers will be the true litmus test for the rally’s durability.