- Premiumisation is reshaping jewellery, alcohol and apparel segments, creating new pricing power.
- Festive and wedding demand is lifting revenue despite weather disruptions.
- Systematix’s nine‑stock shortlist targets companies with margin expansion and D2C strength.
- Free‑trade talks with the UK could unlock additional upside for premium alcohol brands in FY27.
- QSR players are adopting aggressive entry‑level pricing and digital‑first models to recapture footfall.
Most investors miss the hidden premiumisation wave, and that costs them big returns.
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Why Premiumisation Is Powering India’s Jewellery Surge
The jewellery sector defied soaring gold prices in Q3FY26, posting revenue growth of 40‑50% YoY for major players like Titan, Kalyan, Senco Gold and PN Gadgil. The term “premiumisation” refers to consumers shifting from mass‑market to higher‑margin, branded products. In India, rising disposable incomes and a cultural emphasis on gold during weddings have accelerated this shift. While overall volume slipped due to price pressure, the mix tilt toward premium pieces boosted gross margins, a pattern echoed in 2018‑19 when a similar gold‑price spike prompted a 12% margin expansion for the same firms.
How Apparel Retail Mix Shifts Shape Growth Outlook
Systematix notes a “mixed demand environment” for apparel. Value‑oriented retailers are seeing growth moderation, whereas premium and D2C (direct‑to‑consumer) players enjoy margin upside. The D2C model cuts out intermediaries, improving inventory discipline and enabling faster response to fashion trends—a critical edge in a market where monsoon‑related disruptions can cause stock outs. Competitors such as Tata Clothing and Adani Fashion are also ramping up D2C channels, suggesting the broader industry is converging on this efficiency play.
Alco‑Bev Premium Push: What It Means for Your Portfolio
Alcoholic‑beverage firms are riding a structural shift toward luxury spirits and premium beer. Systematix highlights Allied Blenders and Radico Khaitan as beneficiaries, with target prices of ₹720 and ₹3,654 respectively. Premiumisation here is driven by a younger, aspirational consumer base seeking brand‑led experiences. The pending India‑UK free‑trade agreement could lower import duties on Scotch whisky, potentially adding a 4‑6% revenue uplift for companies with strong premium portfolios in Q2FY27. Historically, the 2015‑16 FTA talks with the EU produced a similar boost for imported premium spirits, translating into a 7% share‑price rally for leading players.
QSR Landscape: Aggressive Pricing and Digital Play
Quick‑service restaurants (QSR) are navigating a “complex recovery” with varied same‑store sales growth (SSSG). Brands are deploying entry‑level pricing to attract price‑sensitive diners while investing heavily in digital ordering platforms. This dual strategy mirrors the 2020 pandemic‑era pivot where firms that accelerated online delivery saw a 15% rebound in footfall versus peers. Competitors such as McDonald’s India and Domino’s are intensifying digital spend, signaling a sector‑wide move toward tech‑enabled growth.
Stock Picks: Nine Consumer Discretionary Winners
Systematix’s curated list focuses on companies that combine strong top‑line growth with margin‑improving levers:
- V Mart – Target ₹801: Value‑retail chain expanding its footprint in tier‑2 cities.
- Raymond Lifestyle – Target ₹1,428: Leveraging premium fabrics and a robust D2C platform.
- Arvind Fashion – Target ₹651: Benefiting from higher‑margin denim and apparel exports.
- Thomas Cook – Target ₹155: Travel‑related services poised for a post‑pandemic rebound.
- Aditya Vision – Target ₹657: Eye‑care retail chain with strong franchise growth.
- Tilaknagar Industries – Target ₹521: Diversified consumer goods manufacturer.
- Allied Blenders – Target ₹720: Premium whisky and strong domestic brand portfolio.
- Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands – Target ₹138: Consolidating luxury fashion under one umbrella.
- Radico Khaitan – Target ₹3,654: Leading Indian spirit with aggressive premium‑product rollout.
Investor Playbook: Bull vs. Bear Cases
Bull Case: The confluence of festive/wedding demand, premiumisation across jewellery and alco‑bev, and digital acceleration in QSR creates multiple earnings catalysts. Companies with D2C capability and disciplined inventory can capture higher margins, driving EPS acceleration and share‑price upside.
Bear Case: Persistent weather disruptions could dent retail footfall, while high gold prices may suppress volume in the jewellery segment. Additionally, any delay in the India‑UK FTA could postpone the anticipated premium‑spirit boost, pressuring alcohol stocks.
Smart investors should weigh exposure across the three sub‑sectors—jewellery, apparel, and alco‑bev—to balance growth potential against downside risks, and consider layering positions in the nine highlighted stocks as the fiscal year unfolds.