After two strong years of gains, analysts say gold and silver are likely to grow only modestly in 2026, with prices expected to rise about 3%.
What the numbers show
Traders on the Comex exchange forecast that by December 2026:
- Gold will be about 3.4% higher than today’s price of $4,503 per ounce.
- Silver will be about 3% higher than today’s price of $71.68 per ounce.
In 2025, gold futures jumped 68% and silver futures more than doubled, showing how fast the market moved last year.
Indian ETF performance
Indian investors follow global prices because most gold and silver are imported. In the current fiscal year (FY26) up to 19 December:
- The Nifty 50 index rose about 12%.
- Gold ETFs climbed roughly 45%, reaching ₹11,400 per gram.
- Silver ETFs doubled, hitting around ₹200 per gram.
In the previous fiscal year, gold and silver ETFs gave 35% returns, while the Nifty only added 5%.
Expert advice: Tread carefully
Financial planners warn that the fast rise may not continue. Amol Joshi of PlanRupee suggests:
- Investors with more than 10‑15% of their portfolio in gold or silver should trim back to that range.
- Those holding 5‑7% could raise it to 10‑15% using systematic investment plans over the next 12‑18 months.
He also believes gold will likely outperform silver in FY27.
Why prices may stay flat
Several factors could keep growth modest:
- Lower buying by central banks, which have reduced purchases as prices rise.
- A stronger U.S. dollar, which makes gold and silver more expensive for foreign buyers.
- Less urgent safe‑haven demand as global tensions ease.
Rupee and price expectations
Anand Rathi analyst Naveen Mathur expects the rupee to hover around 87‑88 per dollar next year, a slight improvement from the current 89.85. He projects:
- Gold around ₹95,000‑₹100,000 per 10 grams (about 17% below today’s ETF price).
- Silver near ₹1.75‑₹1.80 lakh per kilogram (about 15% below today’s level).
He adds that a brief “momentum buying” rally could push prices up before larger traders take profits and the market steadies.
Central bank buying slows
The World Gold Council reports central banks bought about 254 tonnes of gold through October 2025, down from 270‑280 tonnes a year earlier and well below the 350 tonnes bought in 2023. Less central‑bank demand could further temper price growth.
Bottom line
Gold and silver are likely to keep climbing, but only at a modest pace. Indian investors should watch ETF allocations, keep an eye on the rupee, and be ready for short‑term swings.
Remember, this is perspective, not a prediction. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any changes.